Liz Truss lifts hydraulic fracturing ban ‘despite little progress on earthquake risk’ | cracking

The Guardian has revealed that Liz Truss will lift a ban on hydraulic fracturing despite a leaked government report indicating little progress has been made in reducing and predicting the earthquake risk caused by the practice.

Sources said the first drilling licenses in nearly three years are expected to be issued early next week, in a move that would reignite claims for another incorrect Tory pledge for 2019.

Given concerns about spiraling energy bills, the new prime minister announced last week that she would “end a moratorium on extracting our huge reserves of oil shale”, which has been in place across England since November 2019.

He promised to publish a long-awaited report by the British Geological Survey (BGS), but it was postponed due to the Queen’s death. The report, seen by The Guardian, admits that predicting earthquakes caused by fracturing and their magnitude “remains a scientific challenge”.

She says there are still “significant knowledge gaps” and that there are still problems identifying potential new fracturing sites that might be able to handle magnitude 3.0 earthquakes.

Current rules require drilling to be halted if tremors of 0.5 or more occur. But hydraulic fracturing companies are said to be pushing to increase that significantly.

Kwasi Quarting, a former business secretary who is now a chancellor, asked the BGS in April to consider new technologies to help reduce earthquake risk and magnitude, and whether sites outside Lancashire were better suited to drilling.

In its report, the BGS offers little evidence that there has been enough progress since the fracking ban to fulfill the promise of a 2019 statement that it will only be resumed if “science has shown conclusively that it can be done safely.”

A hydraulic fracturing platform is under construction at Westby-with-Plumptons in Fylde. Photo: MediaWorldImages / Alamy

The report says that the limited number of hydraulic fracturing sites in the UK “makes it impossible to determine ‘induced seismic’ rates in statistical terms, and means that it is ‘difficult to make a valid comparison’ with other countries”.

She cites research from the United States and Canada that found 1% of fracking wells were associated with earthquakes greater than 3.0, but in some areas that percentage rose to 30%.

While US modeling has helped identify faults most likely to rupture during drilling, the report says, sufficient information was available in only a few regions and “more data is needed in other basins in the UK” to “apply this further”. Widely “.

Given that other industries are allowed to create earthquakes with higher fracturing magnitudes, the BGS says “consistent risk targets” could be beneficial “for all energy-related industries that present a risk of induced earthquakes.”

Greenpeace said it was clear that “there have been no major breakthroughs in the science of forecasting and managing earthquakes caused by fracking”. The charity’s chief scientist, Dr Doug Barr, said: “The Truss government reversing its position on shale gas on the back of this would simply be breaking the clear promise on which they were elected.”

And making estimates of maximum amounts before and during drilling “remains a challenge,” according to BGS. The report adds that attempts at New Preston Road, where the pits have been abandoned, “show some hope” but “provide estimates below the maximum observed volume”.

Hydraulic fracturing has proven particularly controversial in Lancashire, Nottinghamshire, Derbyshire and Yorkshire, and there is still some concern remaining about Sussex after widespread protests against the attempt to drill at Balcombe a decade ago.

There is also thought to be a split over Truss’ new cabinet table – which will not include her Conservative counterpart Zach Goldsmith, who has been sacked as environment secretary – raising further concerns about Truss’ commitment to tackling climate change.

Kwarteng wrote in his letter to BGS that fracking is “not the solution to price problems in the near term,” while Jacob Rees-Mogg, who replaced him as business minister, described shale gas earlier this year as “very clean” and dismissed concerns about trembling. .

Other members of the Conservative Party sought to increase pressure on the government by describing the fracking ban as “unconservative”. More than 30 MPs and counterparts, including former minister David Frost, wrote to Boris Johnson in February, saying that shale gas exploration would be a reliable source of energy and would bring investment to the UK.

The go-ahead for hydraulic fracturing companies to begin exploratory drilling could come as early as next week, after the official period of mourning for the Queen has ended.

The government claims the gas could start flowing in as little as six months, but experts say it will take years, is much more difficult to reach than previously thought and will do little to lower energy bills.

There are 93 exploration drilling licenses already granted to 159 regions in the country, 75% of which are related to fracking, which will be automatically reactivated once the ban on fracking is lifted. The areas that could see drilling stretch from Sussex, Surrey and Dorset to the Midlands, Yorkshire, Cheshire and Lancashire.

Companies are required to obtain planning permission to start drilling. However, this year the Guardian revealed that only a handful of MPs will support fracking in their area.

A government spokesperson said the survey was tasked with “advising the latest scientific evidence on shale gas extraction” and said any suggestion that BGS had been asked to justify fracking was “manifestly incorrect,” given that the review contained “clear and publicly available terms regarding Reference”.

The spokesperson added: “Making the most of our gas resources makes us less dependent on imports and helps maintain the security of the UK’s energy supply in the short and long term. Drawing on lessons from around the world, we will make sure that this is done as safely as possible and where There is local support.

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