Watching the volcano: Where is that lava heading and when will it get there?

Volcano Watch is a weekly article and activity update written by USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory scientists and affiliates. This week’s article was written by postdoctoral researcher David Heymann.

When lava flows erupt on the sides of Kīlauea or Mauna Loa, Hawaiians and emergency management agencies from around the world want to know what to expect.

During the 2018 Kīlauea Lower East Rift Zone eruption, lava from 24 fissures submerged more than 8,000 acres (3,200 ha) of land in the Puna District and destroyed more than 700 structures. Serious numbers like these highlight the need to forecast the progress of lava flows to help emergency managers, residents, and the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) staff. Very accurate predictions of other natural hazards such as hurricanes, floods, droughts and even the spread of a swarm of Kīlauea are now commonplace. Can we do the same for lava flows?

Italics view of a model simulation showing the progression of lava flow from Fissure 22 (white line segments) from the lower Kīlauea eruption of the East Rift Zone of 2018. Color lines show lava flow in 1-hour increments. The simulated flow entered the ocean after 22 hours had elapsed, compared to the actual time frame it took for the lava flow to reach the ocean. The view is from 2 miles (3 kilometers) from the beach to the southeast at an elevation of 8,500 feet (2,600 metres). The Google Earth basemap is from images collected after the end of the volcanic eruption.

The most successful forecasting efforts for other natural hazards depend on the ability to simulate flows of water or air. Although the movement of these fluids is usually more complex than that of lava, we know a lot more about water and air than about lava as a substance. After all, we can’t see inside a lava flow to observe what’s happening below the surface the way we can water and air.

At the heart of risk predictions are computer algorithms that beat numbers as fast as possible to make relevant predictions. After all, forecasting a severe flood in 24 hours is not very useful if it takes 23 hours to make that prediction.

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Although researchers have been applying fluid dynamics principles to lava flows for more than 40 years, most simulations are too slow to use during a crisis when we really want to know the answer to the questions: Where is that lava headed and when is it going to get there?

To help answer this question, HVO scientists for many years have predicted the general path of lava flows using the principle of steep gradient – that the lava flows downhill. In many cases, these expectations worked well; However, this method alone cannot answer the second part: “… and when will you get there?” Because it only predicts the path, not the ultimate speed or length of the flow.

To help answer these questions, USGS scientists are developing a new lava flow prediction model based on physics-based simulations of lava as it flows through real terrain while cooling and solidifying. Designed with simplified yet realistic physics, this model allows 24 hours of lava progress to be simulated in less than two minutes on a regular laptop.

This research is supported by the Additional Disaster Relief Act of 2019 (HR 2157), which has also funded the work of several HVO projects that have been the subjects of recent Volcano Watch articles.

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Of course, we don’t have complete knowledge or measurements of our model’s inputs, so not a single simulation provides much information about our prediction confidence. By running the code multiple times with a set of inputs, a combination – or a combination – of all these models can give us a much better idea of ​​the range of possible outcomes. This has been a common practice in forecasting hazardous weather such as hurricanes for many years and is now at the forefront of volcanic hazard research. HVO scientists are investigating how to produce clusters using this new model, with the goal of successfully predicting lava inundation during future eruptions.

Although there’s a great deal we don’t know about what the volcano is about to do, we can make some short-term predictions based on what’s currently happening. These forecasts, even over short periods of time, give people in the path of lava flows the ability to plan, and provide crucial answers to the questions: “Where is that lava going and when will it get there?”

Join us this coming week for two programs around the first anniversary of the Kīlauea summit eruption in Hawai’i Volcanoes National Park. On September 27th, at 7pm, After Dark in the Park is presented by David Phillips, Vice Scientist in charge of HVO. And on September 29 at 3 p.m., a lecture entitled “A Year on the Edge” by the Hawaii Volcanoes National Park ranger and HVO scientist. Details about these conversations have been posted on the Hawaii’i Volcanoes National Park website at https://www.nps.gov/havo/learn/news/september-2022-events.htm. E-mail [email protected] for further information.

Volcano activity updates

Kīlauea volcano erupts. USGS Volcano Alert Level in WATCH (https://www.usgs.gov/natural-hazards/volcano-hazards/about-alert-levels). Kīlauea updates are released daily.

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Over the past week, lava has continued to erupt from the western vent inside Halemaʻumaʻu crater in Hawai’i Volcanoes National Park. Emission rates of sulfur dioxide remained high and were last measured at around 930 tons per day (tons/day) on September 21. Seismicity is high but stable. At the summit, a short earthquake swarm and high rates of ground deformation occurred on September 20. No unusual activity was observed along the eastern rift zone or the southwestern rift zone. For more information on the current eruption of Kīlauea volcano, see https://www.usgs.gov/volcanoes/kilauea/recent-eruption.

Mauna Loa is not erupting and is still at the volcano alert level. This alert level does not mean that a volcano eruption is imminent or that progression to an eruption from the current level of disturbance is certain. Mauna Loa updates are released weekly.

In the past week, about 190 small earthquakes on the Richter scale have been recorded below the summit and upper elevation sides of Mauna Loa – and most of these have occurred at shallow depths less than 15 kilometers (9 miles) below sea level. GPS measurements show low rates of Earth deformation over the past week. Gas concentrations and fumarole temperatures at both the summit and in the sulfur cone of the Southwest Rift Zone have remained stable over the past week. Webcams do not show any changes to the landscape. For more information on current monitoring of Mauna Loa, see: https://www.usgs.gov/volcanoes/mauna-loa/monitoring.

Six earthquakes have been reported that have been felt in the Hawaiian Islands over the past week: the M3.4 earthquake occurred 10 km (6 mi) northeast of Pahala at a depth of 31 km (19 mi) on Sept. 20 at 6:02 p.m. HST, M2. 3 earthquake 5 km (3 mi) east of Pahala at a depth of 33 km (20 mi) on Sept 20 at 5:41 AM HST, M3.4 earthquake 11 km (6 mi) northwest of Kalua 43 km (26) mi) on September 20 at 5:20 AM HST, M3.2 earthquake 14.1 km (8.8 mi) south of the volcano at a depth of 5 km (3 mi) on Sept. 17 at 5:19 AM HST, M3. 2 earthquake 16 km (9 mi) south of volcano at a depth of 7 km (4 mi) on September 17 at 1:39 a.m. HST, and M3.8 earthquake 46 km (28 mi) south of Lanai city 14 km (8 mi) ) on Sep 16 at 6:19 a.m. HST.

HVO continues to monitor the ongoing eruption of Kīlauea and Mauna Loa closely for any signs of increased activity.

Visit the HVO website for past Volcano Watch articles, Kīlauea and Mauna Loa updates, volcano images, maps, recent earthquake information, and more. Email questions to [email protected].

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