SoCal could see a Northridge-sized earthquake in the next 30 years: expert

Scientists who study seismic fault zones in the Los Angeles area and Orange County said there is a possibility that the area will experience a tremor similar to the devastating 1994 Northridge earthquake in the next 30 years.

Southern California was a long way from being affected by recent seismic activity in Mexico’s Michoacan region on September 19 and 20, but there is a good chance of devastating earthquakes in the area, says Morgan Page, a geophysicist with the US Geological Survey in Pasadena, California. , for The Epoch Times.

“We estimate that the chance of an event the size of Northridge or larger occurring in Los Angeles in the next 30 years is about 60 percent,” Page said.

The red dashed line shows the approximate location of the Palos Verdes fault zone based on the sonar profile collected across the fault zone and the San Gabriel Canyon off the southern California coast. (USGS/public domain)

The 6.7-magnitude Northridge earthquake occurred on January 17, 1994 – Martin Luther King Day – and was one of the state’s most devastating and costly earthquakes. Fifty-seven people died as a result of the disaster, nearly 9,000 people were injured, and structural damage was estimated at up to $50 billion.

In the latest study of seismic threats in Los Angeles, researchers at Harvard University conclude that the Palos Verdes fault zone that stretches across southwest Los Angeles and into Orange County could produce a 7.8-magnitude earthquake.

Aikoi Alverdian walks over rubble after taking some of her belongings from her Hollywood Boulevard apartment building, which was destroyed in the Northridge earthquake in Hollywood, California, January 20, 1994 (Tim Clary/AFP via Getty Images)

Page agreed with the findings, saying that although the fault is fragmented, it is a long structure and likely associated with some large earthquakes. Earthquakes are measured in exponential terms, which means that an earthquake in the Palos Verdes fault zone could be 45 times – or more – stronger than the Northridge earthquake.

However, some researchers expect this type of larger earthquake to occur within 700 to 1,100 years.

“Fortunately for us, the bigger the earthquake, the less likely it is,” Page said.

People left homeless by the Northridge earthquake queue up to make phone calls at a remote phone facility in Canoga Park, California, January 22, 1994 (Mike Nelson/AFP via Getty Images)

She said the Palos Verdes fault zone is mostly offshore, reducing the potential for major damage to structures.

Southern California has not experienced many noticeable earthquakes in the past two decades. Prior to that, the Northridge earthquake was part of a group of earthquakes that shook the region in the 1990s. Earthquakes struck Joshua Tree (6.1), Landers (7.3), and Big Bear (5.4) in 1992, causing millions of dollars in damage.

“We’re lucky because at least in the Los Angeles area, there haven’t been many earthquakes in the past two decades, which is good news because earthquakes tend to gather in space and in time,” Page said. “When you have an earthquake-free period, that means that the next period will probably be calm.”

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