New earthquake forecasts show significant increase in shaking potential

The probability and strength of future earthquake shaking is higher than previously understood in nearly all of New Zealand – and in some places more than twice that, new modeling shows.

The earthquake risk across the country is, on average, 50% higher than what was thought a decade ago – information that will have implications for government policy as well as the engineering, construction and insurance industries.

These are the high-level findings of the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) Update, which will be published on Tuesday.

NSHM is an official earthquake forecaster. It shows how likely an earthquake of a given magnitude is within a given area, within a given time frame.

Read more: * Ten years after devastating Japan tsunami, scientists wonder if it could happen in New Zealand * New earthquake research project compares Hikuranji fault to Japanese earthquake * A step closer to predicting Hikuranji’s massive earthquake in subduction zone * November 14 earthquake is a big shock Big surprises

Tom Cuthbert / Belmont

Photographs taken by the first to legally return to Christ Church Cathedral since the 2011 Canterbury earthquake.

Much like a weather forecast, it is not a prediction – it is a probabilistic model of what is likely. It is not estimated how much damage an earthquake will cause, and an increased risk of an earthquake does not necessarily mean an increase in its impact on the surface.

NSHM, led by GNS Science, was first developed in the 1980s but has not been significantly updated in about two decades. The latest update was years in the making and had input from over 50 scientists.

In general, earthquake risk appears to be higher in most parts of the country.

“Forecasts of ground shaking – the hazard – have increased across the country with an average increase of about 50% or more,” said Dr. Matt Gerstenberger, a seismologist at GNS Science who led the project.

“Overall, the range is from no change to more than double.”

The model is very complex and produces a range of possible scenarios. To understand the extent of the danger in a given area, Gerstenberger said, there were many factors to consider.

Overall, the results indicate that the earthquake risk is highest along the eastern coast of the North Island.

A sample of results released prior to the model’s publication shows the potential to exceed the peak of Earth’s acceleration (PGA) – the intensity of vibration from the earthquake, measured by the gravitational force (g) – in the next 50 years.

In Wellington, there is a 10% chance that the vibration will exceed 0.82 g – a maximum level of vibration – and a 2% chance that it will exceed 1.42 g. They are more than twice the numbers of 0.32g and 0.52g calculated in the 2010 iteration of the model, respectively.

The locations where there is a 10% chance of shaking above 0.5g – the level at which objects will fly through the air – in the next 50 years are Blenheim, Gisborne and Napier. All three are more than double their 2010 figure.

The main influence on the results is the Hikurangi subduction zone, which is the area off the coast of the northeastern island where two tectonic plates are locked in.

Subduction zones produce the most powerful earthquakes in the world, which often lead to tsunamis. Recent examples include the 2011 disaster in Japan, and the 2004 disaster in Indonesia, both of which caused widespread devastation.

Hikurangi is one of the few subduction zones in the world that has not produced significant shaking since seismicity was measured with scientific instruments.

A growing body of research, mostly from the past decade, has shown that it can – and inevitably – trigger a massive earthquake likely to cause significant tremors across much of the country.

“[The Hikurangi] It’s something we know will have an impact on the hazard model, and it’s a significant source of vibration hazard for much of New Zealand and could affect a large part of the country,” Gerstenberger said.

But our other known mistakes are still significant. The Alpine Fault, the Wellington Fault, the faults they connect to—they are still faults, and they are there, and they affect the risk outcomes we get.”

The updated NSHM involved modeling hundreds of thousands of potential ruptures on nearly 1,000 known New Zealand fault lines, and modeling many potential ruptures on fault lines we don’t know about.

It incorporated the latest science into earthquake dynamics, previous earthquake analyses, and used advanced computing to calculate probability ranges.

“The national model incorporated the best available science globally,” Gerstenberger said.

“It took into account a huge amount of new data, and really provided our newest understanding of how earthquakes happen and how they interact together… Really, I think this is world-leading science.”

Julian Thompson/Staff

Geologists inspect a section of the Kikringo Fault in coastal Marlborough in November 2016.

Since forecasts are widely used by industries to determine future risks, they are likely to have a ripple effect.

As of Tuesday, the extent of the impact was not immediately clear.

“We will look carefully [the] A complex set of outcomes and how we integrate that into the construction regulatory system,” said Dave Giggins, Director of the Construction and Engineering Performance Team at the Department of Business, Innovation, and Employment (MBIE).

“We are working with Engineering New Zealand to understand the changes and how this will affect what we need to do to change the design standards for new buildings. We are also working with engineering societies on how this can be used in the seismic assessments currently being done, but that won’t happen until we have How to integrate it into the new organizational system.”

He said that there are currently no plans to change the regulation system for earthquake-prone buildings.

It’s likely a factor in the insurance industry, too.

“Due to the complexity of the model, it is not easy to enter it directly, unfortunately,” said Dr. Joe Horrocks, Senior Research and Resiliency Officer at the Earthquake Commission (EQC).

“It will take some time, and it will take insurers, reinsurers and the EQC some time to consider the results and whether it will affect their premium rates.”

The form is available on the GNS website.

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