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AI model can predict earthquakes

AI model can predict earthquakes

 


Combined research: AI model can predict earthquake of magnitude 6 or higher one day in advance by analyzing data from the previous 30 days

Written by Yang Yuanting and William Hetherington/staff reporter, with writer on staff

The National Center for High Performance Computing (NCHC) and the Academy of Seneca have developed an artificial intelligence (AI) model that can help researchers predict earthquakes a day in advance.

The researchers said the model can predict earthquakes based on precursors of tectonic activity.

The research team, led by Academia Sinica researcher Lee Lou-chuang (李) and NCHC associate researcher Tsai Tsung-chi (蔡宗哲), developed an AI model using Total Electronic Content (TEC) data and a Taiwania 2 supercomputer.

Photo: Jameson Wu, Reuters

They said the model could predict an earthquake of magnitude 6 or higher a day in advance by analyzing data from the previous 30 days.

Previous studies also found that the typical electricity consumption rate in the atmosphere within a 50-kilometer radius of the epicenter shows signs of change before a major earthquake, said the Seismological Center of the Central Weather Bureau, adding that the typical electricity consumption rate over Taiwan proper was low before The 1999 Jiji earthquake.

National Taiwan University researcher Chuang Hao-kun (莊皓琨), who was also on the research team, said Saturday that the team analyzed TEC data from Europe spanning from 2003 to 2014.

“By filtering certain information such as storm turbulence time index, sunspot data and solar radiation index, we were able to accurately determine hourly TEC changes,” he said.

He said the team also used data from 19 cases of TEC changes in which no earthquake occurred to improve the accuracy of the AI ​​model.

“The system can now predict an earthquake of magnitude 6 or higher, but we are still limited by the accuracy of the ionosphere data, and we can’t say for sure where the epicenter will be,” he said.

“We also have to work with data transmission delays of five days or so, since our global ionosphere data is provided by Europe,” he added.

The team also found that the concentration of radon levels in the ground changes before a major earthquake occurs, said Academia Sinica researcher Fu-Qing Zhou (傅), adding that the level of change increases with earthquake intensity and proximity to the epicenter.

“We hope with all of these factors we can more accurately determine when a major earthquake will occur, so that we can notify people and ensure their safety,” he said.

The team’s findings were published in the journal Earth and Space Science.

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