Predict the earthquake that could destroy New York

Every now and then the earth shudders, in some places more often and more dramatically than others. New York is not California. However, Brooklyn chimneys fell and windows were shattered in the summer of 1884, when an earthquake struck near Coney Island: a magnitude of 5, or thereabouts. (Seismometers at the time were not widely circulated.) Anything larger, amid existing infrastructure, would cause a great deal of damage. But we have scant records of how often such an earthquake occurs. “Every thousand years, every ten thousand years, every million years?” “It makes a difference!” He explained that many major earthquakes occurred in the eastern coast. We just don’t know when.

Mink was climbing a mountain in Harriman State Park, next to the Ramapo Fault, to try to fill in the gaps. He was looking for rocks whose shape and location gave him a sense of existential comfort rather than dread. “It was the one that got me thinking about this,” he said, reaching for a boulder the size of a sled perched near the edge of a shallow cliff. “That should say something significant about how much shaking has occurred since it was put in there. If there was too much shaking, it would have fallen.” The hiking buddy couldn’t resist a futile nudge. The rock was deposited there, of course, by a glacier. “Everything smells like the Ice Age,” Minke said. The last glaciers in these parts melted about fifteen thousand years ago. auspicious.

The two continued climbing, looking for ever more dangerous rocks. Some were too small to rule out human intervention. “You could see somebody moved those huge boulders onto the bench,” Mink noted of one arrangement near the campfire remains. Another boulder, curiously heavy in weight, sat in a crevasse, making it difficult to dislodge, and therefore not worth checking. Mink crouched beside the others to sketch their contours in a notebook and measure the slopes of the underlying bedrock, using a carpenter’s level and inclination, for which he had paid eight dollars at Lowe’s. “Most of the things I do are pretty low tech,” he said. “I sometimes lose things in the field and then find them six months later, a little rusty.”

“It’s made from petroleum products that are 100 percent dinosaur-based.”

Cartoon by PC Vey

Minky’s gray hair was unkempt and, like some of the stones he had examined, in apparent defiance of gravity. Such was his focus on the geology that he failed to notice a buck galloping past, although he did call attention to a slight discoloration in the bedrock at one point. “Look at the roof here? Something was protecting this from corrosion. Was there a rock that rolled? Where is it?” Using some back-of-the-cover physics, he estimated how much gravitational acceleration would be required to send the different candidates in his notebook sliding down the hill. “The last we did was on a much gentler slope, and it was around the third point of gravity,” he said. “So that would be this About seven and a half the size.” By contrast, a giant sea turtle-shaped rock on a steep slope seems more likely to ski a power of 7. “And that, actually, is an interesting number,” Menke said. “If you can rule out Any magnitude 7 earthquakes occurring since the end of the ice age, that’s actually very significant in terms of earthquake risk in New York.”

The proper science will require pursuing it with cutting-edge camera technology, for photogrammetry and 3D computer modeling. “I’ll tell you a funny story about a Greek man,” Mink said, referring to the astronomer Aristarchus, who tried to estimate the distance from the Earth to the Sun. “He did a very good job, but there was an important piece of information he needed to know, which was the angular diameter of the sun. It’s half a degree, and he guessed it was two degrees. If he had been careful about measuring things, he would have got the number right.” For now, though, Minky is comfortable with what she was telling him eye to eye. Then again, a magnitude 7 earthquake is a thousand times more powerful than a magnitude 5. Think of Haiti in 2010, rather than Coney Island in 1884.

Stopping to break the water before it began its descent, Minky ran his hand over another rock and broke off a piece of the rock-crust tripe, or lichen. “Very low nutritional value,” he said. “But if you are faced with the choice between eating rock tripe and dying, you eat rock tripe.” ♦

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