Disaster Displacement: Nepal Country Brief (Dec 2022) – Nepal

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Disaster displacement in Nepal

Motives for internal displacement

Every year, monsoon rains cause floods and landslides that displace thousands of people across Nepal. Due to its location between the Indian and Eurasian tectonic plates, the country is also prone to earthquakes. The 2015 Gorkha earthquake was the most important catastrophic event in modern history, displacing an estimated 2.6 million people. There was widespread devastation and destruction in the capital, Kathmandu, which was near the epicenter. The city also hosted many displaced people. The earthquake has had a lasting impact on the mountainous regions of Nepal and may contribute to the increased frequency of landslides and landslide hazards in other regions.

Changing weather and climate patterns are also affecting landslide and flood risks across the Himalayan region, which could contribute to increased displacement in the future. Warming in Nepal is projected to be higher than the global average, with more frequent heat waves and temperature extremes in the future. Climate change is already causing glaciers to melt, and heavy rains are becoming more frequent. The number of people affected by river flooding may double by 2030.

Glacial lake floods (GLOFs) – in which water overflows from naturally formed dams – is another driver of displacement in Nepal. Since 1977, Nepal has seen 26 GLOFs. With its mountainous scenery, large amounts of rain in the monsoon season, and higher temperatures, the risk of snowfall is likely to rise. Across the country, 21 glacial lakes have been identified as potentially hazardous, with risks of breaching, melting, and creating water reservoirs that could eventually lead to flooding downstream.

Another disaster affecting Nepal is drought. There is evidence to suggest that it has increased in frequency, severity and duration in recent decades. It could have severe impacts on agricultural production and possibly displace farmers. The possibility of climatic and hydrological droughts in the country is expected to increase as a result of climate change. Droughts – like the one in 2021 – can lead to wildfires. This can displace people and, by destroying natural vegetation, increase the risk of floods and landslides.

Nepal has made significant investments in disaster risk management policies. However, their vulnerability to weather-related and geophysical disasters is exacerbated by their limited ability to prevent and respond to disaster-induced displacement. Besides natural hazards, its low level of human development increases the risk of its population being unable to deal with the consequences of disasters and climate change and forcing them to relocate in order to survive.

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