Earthquakes Midway 2020 – Times Standard

It’s time to report the mid-term seismic / tsunami of 2020. The good news is that earthquakes and tsunamis have not made much of a news comment this year. The number of earthquake casualties was the third lowest in half a year since 2000. The bad news is that the US earthquakes are the highest since the 1990s.

In the past six months, 52 earthquakes have equaled or exceeded 6 and five earthquakes have reached a scale of 7. No earthquakes reached the M8 level and only two (7.7 and 7.5) reached 7.5. The average long-term survey rate in the United States Geologist predicts about eight earthquakes of M7 or greater and 67 M6s in a six-month period. There are fluctuations from year to year, but 2020 from an earthquake perspective is still just below average.

The largest earthquake of the year was M7.7 in the Caribbean on January 26. This earthquake was located very close to as far as possible from populated areas in the Caribbean (see “Not my fault,” February 2). It caused only modest damage in the Cayman Islands and no injuries were reported. It triggered a tsunami threat message in the Caribbean and a 4-inch tsunami was recorded on the tidal scale on Grand Cayman.

Just because the Caribbean earthquake has had almost no effect does not mean that it was not noteworthy. The Caribbean is capable of producing major earthquakes. If the January earthquake had been in a slightly different place, the outcome of the story would have been much different. Size and location are all in earthquakes. M6.4 just three weeks off the southwest coast of Puerto Rico killed three people and caused more than $ 3 billion in damage. The tsunami response is particularly important to me. Few people realized the long duration of the vibration as a sign of evacuation. This is especially worrisome given the number of tourists in or near the water who need to understand their only alert that they will feel shaken.

The deadliest earthquake of this year so far occurred just four days before the Caribbean earthquake. The June 24 M6.7 Elazığ earthquake in eastern Turkey killed 41 and injured at least 1,600. The narration has been unfortunately similar to many other deadly earthquakes in the past few years – a medium-range earthquake 6 in a densely populated area with an infrastructure not designed to withstand strong ground movement. The earthquake affected two cities and many towns and villages, causing the collapse of more than 80 multi-storey buildings and damaging 1,200 other irreparable buildings.

The M6.5 earthquakes on March 31 in central Idaho and May 15 in Monte Cristo, western Nevada, drew the largest US earthquake for this year to date. Fortunately, the earthquakes were located in remote areas and caused no damage or injuries. Idaho was the largest central earthquake in the state since the 1983 earthquake 6.9 Bora Beck. Mont Cristo was the largest Nevada earthquake since two M7.3 and 6.9 earthquakes in 1954. In addition to two 6.5s, the western United States also experienced 5.8 near Lone Pine, and 5.7 North Utah, 5.5 near Ridgecrest and 5.2 east of Mono Lake. Four earthquakes in the M5 range centered off the northern coast, the largest of which was 5.8 on the Mendocino error, 40 miles from Cape Mendocino Beach. No surprise on site and size. Fortunately, the largest earthquakes were far from populated areas and did not cause any effects.

Today it is one year since the M7.1 Ridgecrest earthquake centered in the Mojave Desert in southern central California. This sequence started on July 4, 2019, with M6.4, followed by 34 hours by 7.1. Since the major shock 7.1, more than 1,000 aftershocks from M3 and greater have been recorded, including 46 in 2020. The rate of aftershocks activity has decreased but it’s not over. 5.5 on June 4 were equal in size with the largest aftershocks in the entire sequence, both of which occurred in the first week after 7.1.

Ridgecrest is arguably the best recorded major earthquake sequence in California in history, thanks to the intensity of modern hardware and new analysis techniques. It changed the understanding of how multiple crashes interact. What is most interesting to me is how the Ridgecrest earthquake affected a much larger area than just the immediate aftershocks. It is very likely that the recent earthquakes in the north – near Lake Mono, in the Owens Valley and western Nevada, are related to the release of Northridge pressure over distances of 250 miles.

The most interesting question is what will happen next? There are three options. The most likely scenario – the sequence is almost finished and the seismic rate and magnitude will slowly decrease over the next six months, or the sequence will continue somewhat at the current rate with occasional 4s remaining, a few 5 seconds, and a few hotspots may have been activated Regional. Option 3 is most disturbing. The sequence is still evolving and one or more earthquakes are still coming. There are two areas that caught my attention – there is an approximately 45 mile gap between the 5.2 earthquake near Lake Mono and the 6.5 western Nevada earthquake. There is a similar sized gap between the northern end of the Ridgecrest region and 5.8 near Lone Pine. Of course there is the mysterious Garlock mistake in the south which has so far been very quiet.

Just because we are in the midst of a pandemic and other threats, do not assume that these earthquakes are no longer a problem. My expectation: we will have seismic surprises and the best way to counteract any unpleasant effects is to take action to prepare now.

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