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Early earthquake warning systems

 


Smartphone use could provide a global seismic early warning system by detecting crowdsourcing traffic with the MyShake app.

Posted by Melissa L. Weber, MA, freelance science writer (Melwriter)

Quote: Weber, ML, 2020, Collective earthquake early warning systems, Tumblr, http://doi.org/10.32858/temblor.102

Researchers at the Berkeley Seismology Laboratory at the University of California, Berkeley, use accelerometers within smartphones to collect vibration data in an attempt to create a global earthquake early warning system using the MyShake mobile app.

Users are the key

Smartphone users who download MyShake become part of the Citizen World banner. The app monitors sudden movement changes, which are analyzed by an algorithm designed to distinguish between seismic and non-seismic waves. When earthquake motion is detected, data is sent to the MyShake server and collected in both time and space. These two levels are determined to detect the actual earthquakes in the collected data.

“The application works all the time, but only transmits data [to the server] When the algorithm that works on the phone detects earthquake-like motion, said Qingkai Kong, assistant data scientist at the Berkeley Seismology Laboratory. “Then it collects data from all phones in one area to confirm the earthquake, where one phone may mistakenly report human activity as an earthquake.”

With the MyShake app, scientists are developing a global early earthquake warning system using cell phone data. Credit: public domain

Since the app was launched in February 2016, over a million downloads have been translated into over 100,000 active users who make daily data contributions. Users have successfully recorded more than 1,000 earthquakes worldwide.

Save lives with a few seconds of warning

When the error is torn, the seismic energy travels at the speed of sound, while the data travels at the speed of light. Kong compares it to a well-known weather phenomenon: lightning is followed by thunder. In this case, the warning is lightning and vibration is the next thunder.

How far do a few seconds of warning help people? According to Men-Andrin Meier, an auxiliary seismologist at Caltech, a warning of 10 to 15 seconds is good enough to provide safety features, like moving to avoid things falling. Other safety measures can be operated automatically.

While the earthquake lands on the floor (or locking the wheels if using a wheelchair or walking), cover your head and neck, and hold onto something sturdy if possible. Credit: Earthquake Country Alliance.

System optimization with better simulation

Researchers at the Berkeley Seismology Laboratory look at MyShake’s performance in seismic detection using both real data and derived simulations to create alerts to warn people before vibrations reach their site.

Two examples were used using data recorded by MyShake to illustrate potential system performance: the June 2016 earthquake of 5.2 magnitude in Borrego Springs, California and a 4.4-magnitude event in January 2018 in Berkeley, California. These events were chosen due to the concentration of MyShake users in the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles Area. Test results showed that had the network detection algorithm been operating at the time of the earthquakes, MyShake would have provided an early warning to the area.

From the actual data generated by the application, the researchers were able to develop an improved algorithm that increased the speed and accuracy of processing time for the data collected in real time.

Next, the researchers wanted to assess the feasibility of early MyShake earthquake alert in other parts of the world. They simulated using historical data in earthquake-prone areas including Haiti, Chile, Nepal and Sulawesi (Indonesia). They chose information from earthquakes since 1980 with a strength greater than 4.0 and assumed a similar intensity for users as in the Los Angeles area (0.1% of the total population).

Their tests indicate that the most accurate and timely warnings occur during shallow earthquakes and upper crust in densely populated areas with many active MyShake users. Areas with very few users and earthquakes that occurred off the coast usually produce a lower estimate of earthquake magnitude. Algorithm adjustments can be made based on regional differences, such as the number of active application users in a region. This potential improvement and other potential changes will be studied in the future.

Users are part of the challenge

Another challenge is to maintain a user base large enough to collect data.

“Earthquakes are rare,” Kong said. “People lose interest and delete the app over time. If people don’t use it, it is difficult to discover. We are constantly working to add a more attractive user interface and other functions to engage users.”

MyShake Alert warns app users of impending shake due to earthquake. Credit: Berkeley Earthquake Laboratory

MyShake is already one of the platforms that offers California earthquake early warning system alerts to the public. ShakeAlert currently uses a network of seismic stations or seismometers to detect earthquakes and send alerts to warn people. MyShake can transform every user’s phone into a small seismograph – essentially creating an inexpensive, global seismic network.

In-depth reading

Kong, Q., R. Martin-Short, and RM Allen (2020) Toward global earthquake early warning with the MyShake Seismic Smartphone Network Part 1: Simulation platform and detection algorithm, Seismol. Precision. Lett. XX 1-12, doi: 10, 1785/0220190177

Kong, Q., R. Martin-Short, and RM Allen (2020) Toward Global Earthquake Early Warning with MyShake Smartphone Seismic Network Part 2: Understanding MyShake Performance Around the World, Seismol. Precision. Lett. XX 1-16, doi: 10, 1785/0220190178

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