The twin earthquakes that hit Türkiye were the most powerful in recorded history – study

According to new research published by Chinese scientists, the February 6 earthquakes that shook Turkey and Syria were likely the most powerful double ever to occur on Earth anywhere in the world. Moreover, the first quake appears to be comparable to the largest earthquake ever to hit Turkey.

According to the research, the first main shock occurred around 4:18 am local time and had an instantaneous intensity (Mw) of 7.95. About nine hours later, a second earthquake hit north, with a magnitude of about 7.86 megawatts.

said Xiaodong Song, head of the SinoProbe Laboratory at Peking University’s School of Earth and Space Sciences, who led the research published this week in the Journal of Seismology.

Both estimates are higher than other published results.

A multiplier is when two or more large earthquakes occur close to a short period of time. In an interview with The Jerusalem Post, Song explained that these events sometimes occur in subduction zones and rarely occur on the continent.

A general view of rubble and damage in the aftermath of the deadly earthquake, in Hatay, Turkey, February 15, 2023. (Credit: CLODAGH KILCOYNE/REUTERS)

He cited several previous events in Turkey, including one in 1688 around the North Anatolian Rift that was determined in the literature to have a magnitude of about 8.0. However, he said that “there were no good appraisal records at the time to accurately quantify”.

There was also a major earthquake in 1939 in Erzincan with an estimated magnitude of 7.8.

Song said that magnitude is a basic criterion for measuring the strength of earthquakes and is of great importance to scientific research and the general public. However, there are often differences when it comes to measuring earthquakes.

In the case of these February events, results of magnitude with significant differences have been reported. Even the difference in magnitude between the first and second quakes seemed highly uncertain, ranging from 0.1 to 0.4.

Song’s team aimed to bridge this gap by using a new and reliable long-term cauda moment magnitude method to measure the magnitudes of the two events.

“This method was specifically designed for large earthquakes (MW >7.5), and results are minimally affected by source complexity and propagation effects,” said first author, Ph.D., Peking University. Student Xinyu Jiang explained. “With hours of long-term coda data, the method can produce a solid amount of torque without further corrections.”

Since completing his latest research, Song said his research group has been collaborating with other groups to determine why such powerful earthquakes occur now and whether there is a way to predict such events in the future.

What causes these earthquakes and who is at risk?

He said that Turkey lies at the crossroads of several large tectonic plates: Africa, Anatolia, Arabia and Eurasia, which is why the country is prone to large earthquakes. However, in most of the earlier events, the ruptures only occurred along one segment of the fault. This time, many fragments were broken, and the rupture speed was faster (the so-called “super shear” rupture) in several fragments than in a typical rupture.

“In this case, we believe several places broke at breakneck speed and caused additional breaks,” Song told the paper. “This super rupture has something to do with the pressure built up along the different fault segments. Details of the operation process are still being worked out. In addition, the super shear rupture also generated strong ground shaking over a larger area, which may explain the severe damage of the doubles events.”

Song warned that Israel also lies along the faults and could be vulnerable. Simultaneous rupture of multiple fault segments can occur to generate a more significant event. In addition, he said, external factors can influence the occurrence of earthquakes, particularly water, which other studies have shown can alter fault behavior.

“But the main cause of earthquakes is the interaction between the different plates,” Song explained. “There are many major plates under Earth’s surface, and they’re moving relative to each other, constantly adjusting to tectonic forces. So sometimes when pressure builds up beyond a limit, it has to be released.”

He added that scientists are “still a long way from predicting a major earthquake,” but that “there are a lot of things we can do” to help reduce the dangerous and deadly impact of such events.

Syria earthquake damage (Source: Wikimedia Commons)

For example, Song said countries like Turkey and Israel should invest immediately in strengthening structures and “preparing the population so they know what to do in the event of an earthquake. It can make a huge difference in terms of mitigating earthquake risk.”

Finally, he recommended that earthquake-prone countries do a better job of collaborating and sharing best research and practices.

“The best way to adapt is another lesson we learn from each other,” he said.

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