Seismologists Use Supercomputer to Uncover Complex Dynamics of Multi-Fault Earthquake Systems – ScienceDaily

On the morning of July 4, 2019, a 6.4-magnitude earthquake struck Searles Valley in California’s Mojave Desert, and its jolts were felt across Southern California. About 34 hours later on July 5, the neighboring city of Ridgecrest was hit by a 7.1-magnitude earthquake, felt by millions across California and throughout neighboring communities in Arizona, Nevada, and even Baja California, Mexico.

Known as the Ridgecrest earthquakes—they are the largest to strike California in more than 20 years—these seismic events have resulted in widespread structural damage, power outages, and injuries. The M6.4 event in Searles Valley was later considered a harbinger of the M7.1 event in Ridgecrest, which is now considered the main shock. The two earthquakes were followed by a large number of aftershocks.

The researchers were baffled by the sequence of seismic activity. Why did it take 34 hours for the seizure to fire the main shock? How did these earthquakes “jump” from one part of a geological fault system to another? Can earthquakes “talk” to each other in a dynamic sense?

To answer these questions, a team of seismologists at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UCSD and Ludwig Maximilian University Munich (LMU) led a new study that focused on the relationship between the two major earthquakes, which occurred along a multi-fault system. The team used a powerful supercomputer combined with data-integrated and physics-based models to determine the link between earthquakes.

Alice Gabriel, an oceanographer and seismologist at Scripps, who previously worked at LMU, led the study along with former LMU doctoral student Tawfiq Tawfiq-ur-Rahman, and several co-authors. Their findings were published May 24 in the online journal Nature, and will appear in the print edition June 8.

“We used the largest computers available and perhaps the most advanced algorithms to try to make sense of this truly baffling sequence of earthquakes that occurred in California in 2019,” said Gabriel, who is currently an associate professor in the Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics at Scripps. Oceanology. “High-performance computing has allowed us to understand the drivers of these large events, which can help with earthquake risk assessment and preparedness.”

Understanding the dynamics of multiple faults is important, Gabriel said, because these types of earthquakes are usually stronger than those when a single fault occurs. For example, the double earthquake between Turkey and Syria that occurred on February 6, 2023 resulted in great loss of life and widespread damage. This event featured two separate earthquakes that occurred just nine hours apart, both crossing multiple faults.

During the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquakes, which originated in the eastern California shear zone along a slip fault system, the sides of each fault moved primarily in a horizontal direction, with no vertical movement. The earthquake sequence cascades through interlocking and previously unknown “paradoxical” faults, secondary or secondary faults that move at high angles (close to 90°) to the main fault. Within the seismology community, there is still an ongoing debate about which fault segments have actively slid, and what conditions promote the occurrence of cascading earthquakes.

The new study presents the first multi-fault model that unites earthquake charts, tectonic data, field mapping, satellite data and other space geodetic datasets with earthquake physics, whereas previous models on this type of earthquake were only data-driven.

“Through the lens of data-packed modeling, enhanced by supercomputing capabilities, we reveal the complexities of multi-fault associated earthquakes, and shed light on the physics governing cascade fault dynamics,” said Tawfiq Rahman.

Using the SuperMUC-NG supercomputer at the Leibniz Supercomputing Center (LRZ) in Germany, the researchers revealed that the Searles Valley and Ridgecrest events are indeed linked. The earthquakes interacted across a statically strong but dynamically weak fault system driven by complex fault geometries and low dynamical friction.

The team’s 3D rupture simulations show how faults that were considered strong before an earthquake can become very weak once rapid earthquake motion occurs and explain the dynamics of how multiple faults can rupture together.

“When fault systems implode, we see unexpected interactions. For example, earthquake cascades, which can jump from one part to another, or one earthquake causing the next to take an unusual trajectory. An earthquake may turn out to be much larger than we might have predicted.” “This is something challenging to build into seismic risk assessments,” Gabriel said.

According to the authors, their models have the potential to have a “transformative impact” in the field of seismology by improving the assessment of seismic hazards in active, multi-fault systems that are often underestimated.

“Our findings suggest that similar types of models can incorporate more physics into seismic risk assessment and preparedness,” Gabriel said. “With the help of supercomputers and physics, we have revealed the most detailed set of data for a complex earthquake rupture pattern.”

The study was supported by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme, Horizon Europe, the National Science Foundation, the German Research Foundation, and the Southern California Earthquake Center.

In addition to Gabriel and Tawfiq Rahman, the study was co-authored by Duo Li, Thomas Ulrich, Bo Li, and Sara Carena of Ludwig Maximilian University in Munich, Germany. Alessandro Verdichia with McGill University in Montreal, Canada, and Ruhr-University Bochum in Germany; and Frantisek Gallović from Charles University in Prague, Czech Republic.

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