Melbourne Sunbury Earthquake Monitor | Quest by the University of Melbourne

Melbourne experienced its most recent earthquake last night, Sunday, May 28, at around 11:42pm local time.

Our calculations put the magnitude of the earthquake at 4.1 at a site near Sunbury, about 30 km northwest of the CBD, at a depth of about 8.6 ± 2 km.

This makes it the largest earthquake on the Richter scale to occur within about 50 km of the CBD since 1932, when a magnitude 5 earthquake struck the Mornington Peninsula.

Victoria Neutectonic Errors. Photo: Geoscience Australia

For a relatively small event, it was felt over great distances including around Hobart, Tasmania, about 650 km from the epicenter.

The old, cold, strong Australian crust can transmit seismic waves more efficiently than, say, the hotter, more active crust you might find in California, which makes this observation less surprising.

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Based on our preliminary estimates of the location, yesterday’s earthquake may have occurred near the Clarkefield Fault Scarp – a Newtectonic feature previously identified as causing earthquakes somewhere between 5.3 and 2.6 million years ago.

On the other hand, we don’t know yet whether Sunday’s earthquake started on a planned fault or not. These ancient faults in Victoria are more numerous than one would imagine, indicating its seismically active past and present.

Undetected faults pose a greater risk because we cannot incorporate their behavior into seismic risk models that feed into risk mitigation strategies and policies.

For example, the 2021 Woods Point earthquake of magnitude 5.9 – the largest Victorian event in at least 200 years – occurred on a previously unknown fault.

Last night’s earthquake certainly reminded us of the much more intense Melbourne earthquake experienced by the 5.9 magnitude Woods Point earthquake on the morning of September 22, 2021 about 130 kilometers northeast of the CBD.

The 2021 Magnitude 5.9 Woods Point earthquake occurred on a previously unknown fault. Photo: Getty Images

For comparison, we estimate that the Woods Point earthquake was radiating about 544 times more energy than yesterday’s quake.

As the largest earthquake to occur near the CBD since 1932, last night’s event highlights the possibility, albeit rare, of earthquakes of magnitude near the CBD or even within the CBD.

The location of the earthquake was estimated by the University of Melbourne. Brown lines indicate neotectonic features. Photo: Supplied

This requires stakeholders to continue the ongoing efforts to take appropriate actions such as updating seismic risk models and building codes.

The 5.6-magnitude Newcastle earthquake of 1989, which caused 13 deaths and nearly $18 billion in total economic losses, highlights the risk of moderate-magnitude earthquakes in Australian population centres.

So far, we’ve been lucky to avoid a devastating earthquake in a population center in Victoria. However, based on the record of the past 57 years, we estimate that an earthquake of magnitude 5 or greater occurs somewhere in Victoria every 8-10 years on average.

Also, an earthquake of magnitude 6 or greater occurs over several years on average somewhere in Australia, mostly in the western half of the continent.

Although statistically low, there is always a chance that one of these earthquakes may occur in a major population center here in Victoria.

Integrating this knowledge into disaster mitigation poses real challenges because current statistical models lack the complexity to accurately incorporate the uncertainties associated with short-term seismic records.

Map showing earthquakes detected by the University of Melbourne Earthquake Network. The black lines are Newtectonic faults and the gray dashed line is a geological boundary. The solid red circles are the deepest earthquakes in Australia. Photo: Supplied

One solution to this problem is to improve monitoring capabilities so that better statistical models can be built with larger data sets to inform policy, strategy (ie disaster risk management) and business decisions (such as insurance premiums and building standards).

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With this in mind, we have developed one of the best performing regionally based seismic monitoring systems in Australia covering mostly the south eastern part of the state with support from ANLEC R&D and AuScope.

This sophisticated network is now able to detect small earthquakes that produce ruptures of tens of centimeters in the Earth’s crust.

Recording these small events is important because these events are linked to the occurrence of larger events through statistical relationships, allowing models to be developed to better determine, for example, the probability of larger events occurring in a given area.

Since developing our network, we’ve been discovering over 400 events a year, up from about 150-200 events a year that were recorded before. This new data set provides new insights into seismic activity, particularly in the southeastern corner of Victoria.

For example, we detected the deepest earthquakes in Australia that occurred in the Gippsland Offshore Basin. Such insights are important for disaster risk management as well as for making business decisions as mentioned earlier.

For example, our recent work supported decision making associated with the CarbonNet project, where a CO storage site is developed in the shallow marine environment for commercial operations.

More seismic monitoring is needed in western Victoria. Photo: Abraham Jones

The data from our network has been used to provide a preliminary location and magnitude of the earthquake, and will also be used in further research to better understand earthquake physics in Australia.

However, extending seismic monitoring to the western half of the state where seismometer coverage is currently sparse is necessary to better describe Victoria’s earthquakes and whether they pose a risk to the community.

Because if yesterday’s earthquake taught us one thing, it would be to expect more earthquakes in Victoria, however rare that may be.

Sign: Recorded earthquake recordings on the University of Melbourne Earthquake Network.

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