Strange Z-errors can cause a major earthquake in San Andreas, California

It’s impossible to know when San Andreas’s mistake will happen with her next big earthquake – an earthquake that could affect nearly 13 million people living in the Los Angeles metro area – but there seem to be two other adjacent mistakes that may have a say in that.

San Andreas error is part of a giant “Z” of flaws. The upper part of “Z” consists of the Ridgecrest error, the middle is the Garlock error and the lower part is the southern part of the famous San Andreas. If a Ridgecrest error “above Z” would cause a really large earthquake (at least 7.5 °), this could lead to an earthquake on a Garlock error “in the middle of Z”, which, in a new study, found that a massive earthquake could cause an earthquake Massive along San Andreas “from below the Z level”.

The study’s co-author, Ross Stein, geophysicist and founder, said that these successive earthquakes will not necessarily happen simultaneously, but over a period (perhaps even decades) as tension increases and moves from one error to another. And CEO of Temblor, Inc. , A company that assesses and evaluates earthquake risk.

Related: Pictures: The Great San Francisco Earthquake

“What we describe is not likely and is a kind of seismic chain reaction,” Stein told Live Science. “But what we have learned over the past four months is that chain reactions do happen in nature. If we are not prepared, as we were at COVID, it has serious consequences.”

You see the California hills near San Andreas fault in California. (Photo courtesy of Steve Browell / Getty Images)

There are a lot of errors (and earthquakes) in California because this is where the Pacific plate grinds against the tectonic plate in North America. However, the error of San Andreas, which extends 800 miles (1,287 km) from the Salton Sea to the coast of Mendocino, is notorious for causing the most deadly earthquake in the country’s history; The 1906 earthquake with a magnitude of 7.8 San Francisco killed an estimated 3,000 people.

The new analysis of this potential “seismic reaction” suggests that another large San Andreas roar near Los Angeles is now 3.5 to 5 times more likely than scientists previously thought, thanks to Ridgecrest’s earthquakes.

Garlock error is relatively quiet; It has not produced a major earthquake for nearly 500 years. But if Garlock’s error is torn about 30 miles (45 km) from its intersection with the San Andreas Fault, it may raise the possibility of a San Andreas earthquake to the southeast – the so-called Mojave department – with a factor of about 150 Stein Books and co-author co-author Shinji Toda, Professor Natural Disaster Research and Seismologist at Tohoku University in Japan, on the Temblor Blog.

“With this we estimate that the net chance of a major earthquake in San Andreas in the next twelve months will be 1.15% or one chance in 87,” they wrote in the post.

Such an earthquake can be disastrous. According to a 2008 report from the U.S. Geological Survey, a 7.8-magnitude earthquake struck south of San Andreas, and could cause more than 1,800 deaths, 50,000 injuries, and $ 200 billion in damage and other losses.

(Image source: Temblor, Inc.) caused by an earthquake

Stein said that the Ridgecrest earthquakes of 2019 led to this investigation. Ridgecrest has experienced four major earthquakes (and many smaller earthquakes) over the past two years: its 6.4 and strong 7.1 in July 2019, and 5.8 and 5.5 in June 2020.

“Ridgecrest was a humble experience,” Stein told Live Science. “I think anyone would have told you that, given how good California mapping is, anything could go wrong [release] 7.1 it would have been possible to know. He was unknown. “

Stein said that the 2019 earthquakes along Ridgecrest added pressure along Garlock Fault, according to information gathered from satellite data.

Related: In pictures: A 6.0 magnitude earthquake shakes northern California

It turns out that the Ridgecrest region is not alien to large earthquakes. Over the past 150 years, the Ridgecrest region (an area 90 miles or 150 km away from error) has experienced four earthquakes of magnitude 7 or higher: the earthquake of at least 7.6 magnitude that struck the Owens Valley in 1872; His strength was 7.3 in Kern County in 1952; His strength was 7.3 that struck Landers in 1992; And the 7.1 force that rocked Hector in 1999. All of these earthquakes added pressure on Ridgecrest’s error, which means that while it didn’t directly cause Ridgecrest’s 2019 earthquakes, it’s likely promoted, says Stein.

Stein noted that large earthquakes in the region do not occur like clockwork, so it is difficult to know when the next strong earthquake could hit. So, to predict the time of the next massive earthquake, Stein and Toda developed a new prediction method. (To clarify the matter, the forecast is not the same as the forecast, because earthquakes are impossible to predict. Instead, the forecast looks at the probability, or probability of an earthquake of a certain magnitude, of a particular location and period of time.)

This machine learning model looked at how pressure is transmitted from earthquakes and used previous earthquakes to test its accuracy. Indeed, the model demonstrates that the June 2020 Ridgecrest earthquakes are consistent with the region’s expectations.

The model showed – partially due to the additional stress of recent Ridgecrest earthquakes – that Garlock’s error has a 2.3% chance to produce a 7.7 strong earthquake next year, or a 1 in 43 chance. This opportunity is 100 times higher than the 0.023% opportunity presented by the third California earthquake forecast (UCERF3 ), A forecast developed by the Center for Southern California Earthquake and California Geological Survey and released in 2017.

Stein said that this potential earthquake of 7.7 (or even 7.5 degrees) along the Garlock Fault error could lead to a major earthquake along the Mojave section of San Andreas Fault.

If the Garlock error rips about 30 miles (45 km) from its intersection with the San Andreas Fault, it may raise the possibility of an earthquake in the Mojave section of San Andreas. (Image source: California geological survey errors torn in Google Earth) What should California residents do?

Another way to look at a 1.15% chance that San Andreas Fault would rip and stimulate Big One is this: there is a 98.85% chance that it won’t happen.

However, it’s good for the public and public policy experts to be aware of this opportunity, no matter how small, Stein said. Stein said it could serve as a nice reminder that people who live near the San Andreas bug should adjust their homes to make them ready for earthquakes, assemble seismic preparedness groups and buy earthquake insurance.

Related: What should you do when an earthquake strikes?

“If you are a homeowner and you are on a fence about earthquake insurance [because] Stein said it is very expensive, “Keep in mind that your risk has risen by 3.5 to 5, and insurance companies don’t seem to raise interest rates because of this study,” so you basically get insurance at a big discount. “

Other geophysicists have pointed out that the new study model does not explain Earth’s complexities. For example, the model does not include the complexities of fluid reactions, which can change stresses on breakdowns over time, and do not affect the different types of rocks in that area, Pablo Gonzalez, a geophysicist at the University of Liverpool in England and said “National Geographic” which was not part From studying.

Stein said that since the study appeared in the Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America on July 14, he has spoken with a number of colleagues who have mentioned problems with the model. He said that many of these issues are covered in the supplementary data of the study, but despite this, models cannot fully simulate real-world situations.

“I feel that what we are saying is a guess and it is not certain, and we recognize that and understand that,” Stein said. “But the other side of that coin is [that] The consequences of this are so important that we should try to estimate them, and this should begin a discussion about what we should put into our earthquake models. “

Originally Posted on Live Science.

What Are The Main Benefits Of Comparing Car Insurance Quotes Online

LOS ANGELES, CA / ACCESSWIRE / June 24, 2020, / Compare-autoinsurance.Org has launched a new blog post that presents the main benefits of comparing multiple car insurance quotes. For more info and free online quotes, please visit https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/the-advantages-of-comparing-prices-with-car-insurance-quotes-online/ The modern society has numerous technological advantages. One important advantage is the speed at which information is sent and received. With the help of the internet, the shopping habits of many persons have drastically changed. The car insurance industry hasn't remained untouched by these changes. On the internet, drivers can compare insurance prices and find out which sellers have the best offers. View photos The advantages of comparing online car insurance quotes are the following: Online quotes can be obtained from anywhere and at any time. Unlike physical insurance agencies, websites don't have a specific schedule and they are available at any time. Drivers that have busy working schedules, can compare quotes from anywhere and at any time, even at midnight. Multiple choices. Almost all insurance providers, no matter if they are well-known brands or just local insurers, have an online presence. Online quotes will allow policyholders the chance to discover multiple insurance companies and check their prices. Drivers are no longer required to get quotes from just a few known insurance companies. Also, local and regional insurers can provide lower insurance rates for the same services. Accurate insurance estimates. Online quotes can only be accurate if the customers provide accurate and real info about their car models and driving history. Lying about past driving incidents can make the price estimates to be lower, but when dealing with an insurance company lying to them is useless. Usually, insurance companies will do research about a potential customer before granting him coverage. Online quotes can be sorted easily. Although drivers are recommended to not choose a policy just based on its price, drivers can easily sort quotes by insurance price. Using brokerage websites will allow drivers to get quotes from multiple insurers, thus making the comparison faster and easier. For additional info, money-saving tips, and free car insurance quotes, visit https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/ Compare-autoinsurance.Org is an online provider of life, home, health, and auto insurance quotes. This website is unique because it does not simply stick to one kind of insurance provider, but brings the clients the best deals from many different online insurance carriers. In this way, clients have access to offers from multiple carriers all in one place: this website. On this site, customers have access to quotes for insurance plans from various agencies, such as local or nationwide agencies, brand names insurance companies, etc. "Online quotes can easily help drivers obtain better car insurance deals. All they have to do is to complete an online form with accurate and real info, then compare prices", said Russell Rabichev, Marketing Director of Internet Marketing Company. CONTACT: Company Name: Internet Marketing CompanyPerson for contact Name: Gurgu CPhone Number: (818) 359-3898Email: [email protected]: https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/ SOURCE: Compare-autoinsurance.Org View source version on accesswire.Com:https://www.Accesswire.Com/595055/What-Are-The-Main-Benefits-Of-Comparing-Car-Insurance-Quotes-Online View photos