Earthquakes can be expected better – Diamond Report

Strong earthquakes occur again and again around the Pacific Ocean. Like that off the Japanese coast in March 2011, which in conjunction with the next tsunami disaster, nearly 20,000 people lost their lives and caused the nuclear disaster in Fukushima. It was surprising if residents were warned that the consequences would be less severe, says Onno Oncken of the German Research Center for Earth Sciences at GFZ in Potsdam, the Earth trembles, according to current impossible knowledge. “But information that the earthquakes may increase dramatically over the next few weeks will help,” Oncken says. In his view, this is exactly what could be possible in the future – using a process described by GFZ scientists and international colleagues in the journal “Nature”. It will be a big step forward, but expert responses are subdued.

Amazing pattern in Earth’s crust

The team surrounding lead author Jonathan Bedford analyzed how the Earth’s crust before the 2011 Tohoku Oki earthquake (magnitude 9.0) and before the 2010 Molly earthquake (Chile, magnitude 8.8) said. Use data from satellite navigation systems such as GPS and discover an amazing pattern.

Both sites are located in the subduction zone, where a tectonic plate is submerged below the other. The “emerging mainland” – here Japan or Chile – usually moves away from the subduction zone because the continental plate is slightly compressed and thus shortens. In these cases, however, there was a sudden change in direction, and the country moved a few millimeters toward the open ocean for a few months before returning to the usual movement. Shortly thereafter there were strong earthquakes.

Peripheral plate drainage

Researchers suggest the following explanation for the change of direction: the experience of the oceanic plate immersed in deep rocky shifts, where the material becomes denser and thus decreases stronger and faster. This conversion is secure, but according to the model, it happens very quickly and widely.

In addition, there are drains from the ocean plate, which act like a lubricant, and thus make it easy for both plates to slide deep into it. This causes the top continental plate to slide forward, adding tension to a depth of a few kilometers, as the plates are solid and tangled, and quickly cause a fracture – earthquake.

If the proposed model is correct, can geologists use the temporary motion change to predict an imminent earthquake? This idea is clear and Onno Oncken confidently says: “We have a certain hope that we can use it to identify the potential for increased earthquakes.” Of course, with a vague indication that this can be expected “in the next few weeks and months”.

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26. 11. 2019 12:38 at 0127 min. Video Graphics: This is how earthquakes occur

But even this inaccurate phrase is useful because people cope with it, digest escape routes and do exercises, says the GFZ scientist. “Most of the deaths from severe earthquakes are not caused by building collapse, because they are built accordingly in typical areas. Instead, they are follow-up events such as the tsunami and fires. Long-term precautions are necessary to protect human lives.”

The model has narrow borders

However, the model has narrow limits. It is only suitable for large earthquakes in subduction zones, moreover, it has worked so far only in the two mentioned events. The striking deformation of the earth plates has not yet been determined in other large earthquakes. With better sensors and a more intense measurement network, Onken says the sensitivity should increase and this will work soon.

Jean-Philippe Avoac of the California Institute of Technology did not participate in the study while hesitating. “There are only two cases where it has been,” he says. “These notable movements may also occur without an earthquake later.” The hypothesis must be supported by more work. This is also what Roland Burgmann (Berkeley) thinks. “I am not yet convinced that the measured distortions are really caused by the movements of the immersion plate at great depth and that they can be considered primarily a sign of two powerful earthquakes.”

If you continue to conduct further studies to support this assumption, it would certainly “a big deal”, as follows Bergman. It is believed that it is too early to speculate that this model will help determine the risk of an early earthquake.

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