Earthquake research tracks approaching 'Seismic Dragon King'

By KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.

(a) Distribution of earthquakes with a mechanical magnitude of at least 3.0, from the JMA catalogue, with a rectangular highlight over the study area in this editorial around the Noto Peninsula. The time period is from 1 January 1995 to the occurrence of the MW 7.5/MV7.6 earthquake on 1 January 2024. The red dots are aftershocks above MV 3.0 from 1 January 2024 to 15 January 2024, roughly indicating rupture from a MW 7.5 earthquake. This analysis, focusing on the swarm, covers only the nucleation point of the Mw 7.5 earthquake, as shown by its focal mechanism in red. The 2007 Mw 6.7 earthquake is marked with its focal mechanism in blue. (b) Catalog magnitude statistics around the Noto Peninsula (inside the rectangle), indicating the seismic transition period around 2006. The 2007 Mw 6.7 earthquake is highlighted as a hollow star in blue, and the 2024 Mw 7.5 earthquake is highlighted as a solid star in red. (c) Catalog magnitude statistics around the Noto Peninsula (inside the rectangle) using the event index, further confirming the completion magnitude around 1.0 and 2007–2008, the final seismic transition. Credit: Earthquake Research Progress (2024). doi: 10.1016/j.eqrea.2024.100290

The “Dragon King” theory has been proposed based on complexity physics. According to this theory, “Dragon King” events deviate from a power law distribution as a statistical outlier and are significantly more predictable.

On January 1, 2024, a Mw 7.5 earthquake struck under Japan's Noto Peninsula. Prior to this seismic event, extensive studies had been conducted in the area, focusing primarily on the earthquake swarm that originated under the Noto Peninsula in November 2020.

By examining the scaling law of the identified sequence using data from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Focal Mechanism Catalog, a team of researchers from China identified the Mw7.5 earthquake as exhibiting characteristics of a “seismic dragon king.”

“We applied the loading-unloading response ratio (LURR) to analyze earthquakes in the vicinity of the Noto Peninsula, where pre-mainshock seismicity primarily defined the aftershock zone of the 2007 Mw6.7 Noto-Hanto earthquake and the ongoing earthquake swarm.” explains the study's first author, Yu Liu.

“The minimum magnitude of smaller events gradually decreased from about Mv 2 to 0 between 1995 and 2006, likely due to the integration of Hi-net and other dense seismic networks during this period.”

The team published their findings in the journal Earthquake Research Advances.

The LURR method, proposed by Xiangzhou Yin, who serves as lead and co-author of this study, has seen successful application in many earthquakes globally.

This approach, based on damage mechanics, leverages responses of seismic events to tidal pressure fluctuations induced by celestial bodies such as the Sun and Moon to measure the mechanical state of the medium. Liu, one of Yin's students, observed a precise alignment between the variation in LURR preceding the Mw7.5 earthquake and theoretical predictions.

Further investigations are being conducted by the team. However, Yin cautioned caution in interpreting findings from retrospective case studies, stressing the need to treat such analyzes with caution despite their potential to advance understanding of earthquake mechanics. Meanwhile, Yongxian Zhang, another student of Yin and co-author, highlighted the prevalence of seismic swarms in China and around the world.

More information: Yue Liu et al, Tracking the approaching pace of the 'Seismic Dragon King': Additional evidence for the Noto earthquake swarm and the 2024 Mw 7.5 Noto earthquake, Earthquake Research Progress (2024). doi: 10.1016/j.eqrea.2024.100290

Provided by KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.

Citation: Earthquake Research Tracks Approaching Pace of 'Seismic Dragon King' (2024, February 26) Retrieved February 27, 2024 from https://phys.org/news/2024-02-earthquake-pace-approaching-seismic-dragon. programming language

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