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Predicting earthquake ruptures through slow slip development

Predicting earthquake ruptures through slow slip development


Editor's Highlights are summaries of recent research written by AGU journal editors. Source: AGU Progress

Ongoing geodetic and seismic monitoring provide compelling evidence that plate boundary sliding involves complex slow sliding events (SSEs), some of which have been identified as potential precursors of large events. However, the physical origins of future large earthquakes and their role in advancing or delaying future large earthquakes remain unclear.

Lee and Gabrielle [2024] Presenting 3D numerical models that relate time decades to seconds, linking SSE weather episodic cycles and earthquake dynamics to suggest that the transient stress evolution of the 2014 Mw 7.6 SSE event may have led to the 2014 Mw 7.3 Guerrero, Mexico earthquake. These simulations highlight the importance of integrating loading between earthquakes, SSEs, and rapid coseismic rupture to elucidate their physical relationship.

Although these models do not yet allow prediction of the long-term correlation of slow slip with future earthquakes, they provide new opportunities for further development of models that integrate geodetic and seismic data on different time scales to improve prediction of slip behavior in the subduction zone.

Citation: Lee, D., and Gabriel, A.-A. (2024). Linking long-term 3D slow-slip cycle models to rupture dynamics: core of the 2014 Mw 7.3 Guerrero earthquake, Mexico. AGU Progress, 5, e2023AV000979.

—Marcus Moreno, editor, AGU Advances

Text © 2024. The Authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0 Unless otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission of the copyright owner is prohibited.





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