Noto earthquake claims continue to evolve

Claim payouts arising from the January 1, 7.5-magnitude Noto earthquake are still ongoing, with the total insured loss, according to estimates by the General Insurance Association of Japan (GIAJ), initially expected to exceed 100 1 billion Japanese yen ($660 million), says On.

In its report, “Global Catastrophes Summary Q1 – April 2024,” Aon says total insurance losses will be higher as GIAJ operates in less than 50% of the Japanese insurance market, depending on the region.

For example, in Ishikawa Prefecture, which was hardest hit by the earthquake, GIAJ prevalence rates are around 30%. Followed by Niigata and Toyama Prefectures with 27% and Fukui Prefectures with about 35%. It should also be noted that these numbers represent residential lines only, and not commercial and industrial lines.

According to data from GIAJ, the highest loss so far was recorded in Ishikawa Prefecture ($268 million), which lies partly on the fault level created by the earthquake. This equates to more than half of the losses reported by GIAJ.

A quarter of the payments were reported in Toyama Prefecture ($110 million) and $83 million were recorded in Niigata. The average payment is expected to be larger in Ishikawa Prefecture compared to other areas due to its proximity to the fault level, along with a higher proportion of older homes.

The earthquake, which struck the Noto Peninsula, 300 kilometers northwest of Tokyo, and which included nearly 8,600 aftershocks of varying intensity that followed, struck much of Japan's western coast, affecting millions of people. This was one of the largest crustal earthquakes to hit mainland Japan in the past 100 years. However, this occurred in an area with relatively less population density and exposure. Insured losses from this event will continue to evolve.

Loss estimates and their impact on (re)insurance

Despite Japan's ability to design and build earthquake-resistant infrastructure, the event claimed the lives of at least 245 people and injured 1,546 others. In addition to these losses, the event caused significant material damage and already ranks as the seventh largest earthquake in modern Japanese history in terms of the number of damaged residences.

According to the latest figures published by GIAJ, the event resulted in at least ¥74 billion ($480 million) in home hazard insurance losses (as of March 31, 2024), with approximately 81,500 insurance claims paid and an average claim of $5900.

Aoun says it is important to note that the affected area had a relatively higher proportion of elderly people (about 60% were over 60 compared to about 30% nationally), which affects the number of deaths and infections.

Another important point to consider is that Japan has undergone a series of building code updates that reflect lessons learned from the earthquakes, the most notable change occurring in 1981. The severely affected area had twice the amount of housing before 1982 compared to the average Nationalism. -Sage, which naturally affects the extent of damage. Furthermore, seismic retrofitting in the area is well below national standards.

While the Noto earthquake is among the costliest events since 1950, it is still nowhere near the impact of the Great Tohoku earthquake and tsunami in 2011, or the Great Hansen event in 1995.

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