Europe earthquake

The earthquake had been coming for a long time. It was widely expected. However, it surprised many. The stunning success of Eurosceptic political forces in the European Parliament elections would dramatically change the continent. As we enter a chaotic period of negotiations and haggling over the EU's top positions, it seems easier to predict where Europe might be in ten years than where it might be in ten days.

Gone was the idea of ​​an ever-closer union, with peoples with separate identities threatening to enter the stage of European politics. I use people in the plural to say from the outset what many pro-European scholars and commentators refuse to accept for granted: that Europe does not constitute a political system analogous to a nation-state. Instead, it consists of 27 member states with 27 separate countries. This does not make it a democratic state, which is the pioneering concept advocated by Oxford University academic Calypso Nicolaides. Nicolaides wants to see Europe as “a union of peoples, understood as states and citizens, ruling together but not as a single unit.” But this Europe avoids the issue of absolute power, which makes it unworkable, especially in times of crisis. Who would be sovereign in such a political system? Who will decide on the exception? In response to this question, French President Emmanuel Macron called for the creation of a truly sovereign Europe. “Our Europe is deadly, and we must rise to the challenge,” Macron and his German counterpart, Chancellor Olaf Scholz, wrote last May.

But they have not risen to the challenge, and I suggest they will not be in a position to shape Europe's future. The ruling Social Democratic Party, led by Schulz, received only 14% of the votes, ranking third after the far-right, Eurosceptic Alternative for Germany party. Also in France, Macron's Ennahda party received only 15%, which is less than half of what Marine Le Pen's National Rassemblement Party received. However, in many ways, this was not a European election, but 27 national elections. As legal scholar Alberto Alemanno said, in these elections, “we have seen people vote for national parties that field national candidates, that advance national agendas.”

Alemanno is right in his diagnosis but wrong in his prescriptions. He calls for the further Europeanization of Europe. Make elections truly European, and you will create a European demography that will lead to a European democracy. Things will not be perfect, rivalries will continue, but people's voices will be heard, and Europe will become more democratic than ever, or so the argument goes. But this won't work. To save democracy in Europe, we should not make its politics more European, but rather re-nationalize it. This brutal process of Europeanization has brought us to where we are now: a populist backlash, not just against liberalism but against the fundamental principles and values ​​that make democracy possible and sustainable.

In the coming years, this election will be seen as a major turning point. It will mark the end of the European Union's ambitions to transform itself into a supranational, semi-sovereign federal union. The Europe we are heading towards will be much closer not only to what David Cameron called for before the Brexit referendum, but also to what Margaret Thatcher called for when she opposed the creation of the European Union we have today. Cameron wanted more control over immigration both from outside and within the EU, while Thatcher fought for a Europe of nation-states. As she put it in a speech at the College of Europe in Bruges in 1988: “Let Europe be a family of nations, understanding each other better, valuing each other more, doing more together, but enjoying our national identity no less than our European identity.” Shared. “Strive.”

Thatcher's message will resonate with today's voters across the Union – whether they express their discontent by voting for right-wing or left-wing parties opposed to the prevailing consensus. This is not to downplay the vast differences between voter interests within individual member states. Europe has always meant many different things to different peoples—a truism that applies even within the six founding nations: Belgium, France, West Germany, Italy, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands. Just think of the differences between France and Germany. Although French elites viewed the European project as a means to aggrandize France, for many Germans Europe's goal was to restore the nation's credibility after its descent into barbarism during World War II. To achieve this, Germany used Europe to hide its power.

Post-election developments in France are a reminder, if we needed one, of the centrality of domestic politics. Despite numerous internal problems, Macron was until very recently seen as Europe's leader. Calling early elections in the wake of his party's poor performance in the European Parliament vote would certainly hasten his death. Whether Marine Le Pen's National Party obtains an absolute majority in the French National Assembly, or only comes close to that majority, Macron's power base will be greatly diminished. He will no longer be seen as a credible leader for France and – even more so – for Europe.

In contrast, the “Brotherhood of Italy” party, led by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, received the largest share of the national votes (29%). This has strengthened her democratic credentials, despite the overall size of her party group in the European Parliament (fourth behind the mainstream centre-right, centre-left and Macron's Party for the Renewal of Europe). Europe will thus be renewed but along the lines of what Meloni and her supporters have been advocating for some time: instead of making Europe sovereign, member states will seek to reclaim their national sovereignty from Europe. Collectively and as individual nation-states, they will seek to impose greater control over migration to Europe as well as maintain (some) control over their national economies.

The specter of Donald Trump's return to power looms in Brussels and other European capitals. The situation in Ukraine remains tragic. It appears that Russia's desire to destroy the nation has not diminished. But the return of Europe with (some) powers to its constituent member states is not all bad news for Ukraine. The European Union as a whole has consistently overpromised and underdelivered on the beleaguered country. Critical supporters were (some) Member States and non-EU countries, namely the United States and the United Kingdom. Their role will become even more important – both within and alongside NATO.

What about sovereign Europe then? Do you remember Europe that is able to defend its interests in the world? An independent, resilient state independent of other major powers, including the United States and China? That Europe is a future that never was. For Europe to regain its strength and credibility, it must become more responsive to its citizens. This is likely to be achieved at the level of nation-states, rather than within a supranational system of government in the making.

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