Warning of a “huge earthquake” in Japan | Detailed explanation

A collapsed house is seen in the town of Osaki in Kagoshima Prefecture, southern Japan, Friday, Aug. 9, 2024, after a strong earthquake struck on Thursday. | Photo credit: The Associated Press

Japan's seismologists say the country should prepare for a potentially massive earthquake one day that could kill hundreds of thousands of people – although they stressed the warning does not mean a massive quake is imminent.

The Japan Meteorological Agency's warning is the first issued under new rules put in place after the 2011 earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disaster that killed about 18,500 people.

What does the warning say?

The Japan Meteorological Agency warned in its warning of a major earthquake in the future that “if a major earthquake occurs in the future, it will cause strong shaking and huge tsunamis. It added that the possibility of a new major earthquake is higher than usual, but this does not indicate that a major earthquake will definitely occur within a specific period of time.”

The consultation concerns the Nankai Basin subduction zone between two tectonic plates in the Pacific Ocean, which has been hit by major earthquakes in the past.

What is the Nankai Basin?

This 800-kilometer-long marine basin stretches from Shizuoka, west of Tokyo, to the southern tip of Kyushu. This basin has experienced devastating earthquakes of magnitude 8 or 9 every century or two. These so-called “superquakes,” which often occur in pairs, are known to trigger dangerous tsunamis along Japan’s southern coast.

In 1707, all parts of the Nankai Trough erupted simultaneously, triggering an earthquake that remains the second-strongest ever recorded in the country. This quake—which also caused the last eruption of Mount Fuji—was followed by two powerful Nankai earthquakes in 1854, and then two in 1944 and 1946.

What is the bet size?

The Japanese government has previously said there is a 70 percent chance of a major quake of magnitude 8 to 9 hitting the Nankai Trough in the next 30 years. In a worst-case scenario, experts estimate 300,000 people could be killed, and some engineers say the damage could reach $13 trillion with infrastructure destroyed.

“The history of major Nankai earthquakes is compellingly frightening,” geologists Kyle Bradley and Judith A. Hubbard wrote in their Earthquake Insights newsletter. “While earthquake prediction is impossible, one earthquake usually increases the likelihood of another.”

“The great Nankai earthquake that will occur in the future is certainly the most anticipated earthquake in history – the original definition of a major earthquake.”

How worried should people be?

Japan is reminding people living in quake zones to take common precautions, from securing furniture to knowing the location of the nearest evacuation shelter. Many households in the country also keep disaster kits on hand, including bottled water, long-lasting foods, a flashlight, a radio and other practical items.

But don't panic — there's a “slight chance” that Thursday's (Aug. 8, 2024) magnitude 7.1 earthquake was just an early tremor, according to Bradley and Hubbard.

“One challenge is that even when the risk of a second earthquake is high, it is always low. For example, in California, the rule of thumb is that any given earthquake has about a 5% chance of being a precursor,” they said.

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