Japan Meteorological Agency urges caution over earthquake prediction hoaxes; advises focus on disaster prevention measures

File photo of the Yomiuri Shimbun newspaper, the Japan Meteorological Agency building in Minato Ward, Tokyo.

By Mikoto Hata / Yomiuri Shimbun Editorial Staff

16:16 Japan Time, August 12, 2024

It is very difficult to predict the exact location and date of earthquakes based on current scientific knowledge. The recently issued large-scale seismic advisory called “Additional Information on the Nankai Basin Earthquake” was issued based on the statistical probability of an earthquake.

According to the Japan Meteorological Agency, a total of 1,437 earthquakes of magnitude 7 or greater occurred worldwide from 1904 to 2014. Of these earthquakes, there were six cases in which a subsequent earthquake of magnitude 7.8 or greater occurred within 50 kilometers of the epicenter of the first quake within seven days.

On Thursday, a 7.1-magnitude earthquake struck the Hyogandana Sea at the southwestern edge of the Nankai Trough. The agency estimated that the possibility of a major earthquake in this area has increased compared to normal times.

Large earthquakes in the past have proven the difficulty of accurately predicting earthquakes. For example, the government has stepped up disaster preparedness measures based on the hypothesis of predicting the so-called Tokai earthquake, which is believed to be likely to occur on the eastern side of the Nankai Trough.

However, despite a 7.3-magnitude earthquake off the coast of Sanriku in the Tohoku region on March 9, 2011, the government failed to predict the massive 9.0-magnitude East Japan Earthquake that struck two days later.

Based on this issue, the government changed its policy in 2017, deciding to issue a notice calling for alert or attention after events such as an earthquake of magnitude 6.8 or greater in the same focal area. It did so based on the belief that, given current scientific knowledge, it is difficult to predict with a high degree of certainty that a Tokai earthquake will occur within two to three days.

Based on these circumstances, the agency announced on its website: “The information that predicts earthquakes by specifying the date, time and location is just a hoax. There is no need to worry.”

The agency also claims that there is no scientific explanation for the “earthquake clouds” that allegedly appear before major earthquakes, and that there is no scientific basis for the ability of animals and plants to predict earthquakes.

As social media posts about earthquake predictions spread, Kiyoshi Takeda, head of the agency's earthquake analysis office, told reporters on Saturday: “We advise people not to be fooled by false information and should prepare disaster prevention measures.”

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