The California fault line is still relatively unknown. It caused last week's earthquake and may be the site of the “big one.”

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On Monday, a 4.4 magnitude earthquake struck Southern California, felt all the way from Los Angeles to San Diego. While no major damage was reported, the quake was triggered by a fault line that, while relatively unknown, could be more dangerous than the famous San Andreas Fault.

The Puente Hills Fault runs beneath downtown Los Angeles and Orange County—both populated areas. The 10-mile-deep fault runs at a cliff-like angle and approaches the surface near the University of Southern California campus.

This could all be the site of the next “big accident.”

If an earthquake along the Puente Hills Fault strikes the soft soil in the Los Angeles Basin, it could amplify the earthquake's intensity by up to ten times compared to areas on the underlying rock.

A full collapse of the fault, estimated at 7.5 on the Richter scale, could kill between 3,000 and 18,000 people, displace up to 735,000 families and generate up to 99,000 tons of debris, according to the US Geological Survey and the Southern California Earthquake Center.

The center also expected that such an earthquake would cause economic damage to the region estimated at about $252 billion, making it the most expensive disaster in U.S. history.

Could California's relatively unknown Puente Hills Fault trigger a more deadly earthquake than any we've ever seen on the famed San Andreas Fault? (Copyright 2023 The Associated Press. All rights reserved)

“It’s a reminder that this is actually our most dangerous fault,” seismologist Lucy Jones, a research assistant at the California Institute of Technology, told the Los Angeles Times.

Major earthquakes occur along the infamous San Andreas Fault every 180 years or so, although the fault hasn't seen a major quake since 1906. The fault covers a massive 800 miles, and the earthquake center estimates that the fallout from a serious quake wouldn't be significant since it stretches over large sections across sparsely populated desert.

A 2008 report co-authored by Jones estimated that a magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault would cause fewer deaths and less economic damage.

Models estimate that such an event would cause about 1,800 deaths and $213 billion in economic losses. “These numbers are extremely low because of aggressive retrofit programs that have increased the earthquake resistance of buildings, highways, and lifelines, as well as economic resilience,” the report said.

The Puente Hills Fault lies beneath downtown Los Angeles and Orange County — two densely populated areas. (Copyright 2023 The Associated Press. All rights reserved)

The Bounty Hills Fault is the same overall fault network that produced the 5.9 magnitude Whittier Fault, which killed eight people and caused about $358 million in damage in 1987.

Monday's quake, centered about 1,100 feet southwest of Huntington Street and Eastern Avenue, struck in the same area that saw a pair of quakes in early June — a magnitude 3.4 on June 2 and a magnitude 2.8 on June 4. Both were linked to the Bounty Hills fault system.

This comes on the heels of several other earthquakes in Southern California that occurred in quick succession, including a 3.6-magnitude quake in Ojai on May 31 and two of the same magnitude under the El Sereno area east of Los Angeles — which can also be attributed to the Puente Hills fault.

These seismic events come amid ongoing speculation about a “big one” — a quake of magnitude 8.0 or greater. However, predicting and preparing for it remains difficult.

Workers participate in a “drop, cover and hold” drill during a ShakeOut earthquake drill at the Los Angeles Regional Food Bank. A 7.5-magnitude rupture on the Puente Hills fault is estimated to have killed between 3,000 and 18,000 people. (Copyright 2023 The Associated Press. All rights reserved)

“Unfortunately, earthquake prediction remains a very difficult task,” according to the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services website. “While scientists can monitor fault lines and detect patterns of seismic activity, they cannot reliably predict micro-earthquakes.”

Instead, scientists are dealing more in the realm of long-term probabilities, which can tell us what high-risk areas can do to prepare for the day when the possibility of a major, hard-to-predict earthquake arrives.

For example, the USGS estimates that there is a 72% chance that an earthquake of magnitude 6.7 or greater will strike the San Francisco Bay Area in the next 30 years.

Until forecasts become more accurate, governments will continue to enact preparedness measures including digital alert systems, practical drills, and building upgrades. Individual citizens are advised to prepare emergency gear, kneel, cover their head and neck, and hold onto something stable when an earthquake begins.

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