Study links climate change to earthquake frequency – Eurasia Review

A recent study by Colorado State University shows that climate change can affect the frequency of earthquakes, adding to a small but growing body of evidence showing that climate can alter the seismic cycle.

CSU geologists analyzed the Sangre de Cristo Mountains in southern Colorado, a range with an active fault along its western edge. Their results suggest that the fault remained fixed in place under the weight of glaciers during the last ice age, and as the ice melted, slip along the fault increased. This suggests that seismic activity along the fault could increase as glaciers retreat.

“Climate change is happening at a much faster rate than we see in the geological record,” said first author Sissy Hurtado, who led the study as her master's thesis. “We see this in rapid mountain glacial retreats in Alaska, the Himalayas and the Alps. In many of these regions, there are also active tectonics, and this work shows that as the climate changes ice and water loads, tectonically active regions may experience more frequent fault movements and earthquakes due to stress conditions.” rapidly changing.

It is known that the climate adapts to seismic changes in the Earth's surface. For example, tectonic uplift of mountain ranges changes atmospheric circulation and precipitation. However, few studies have investigated the influence of climate on tectonics, and this study is among only a few that link seismic activity to climate.

“We've been able to model these processes for a while, but it's hard to find examples in nature,” said Sean Galen, associate professor of geosciences and senior author of the study. “This is compelling evidence. It indicates that the atmosphere and the solid Earth have close connections that we can measure in the field.”

The Sangre de Cristo Mountains were covered in glaciers during the last Ice Age. Using remote sensing and field data, the researchers reconstructed where the ice was located, calculated the load that would have compressed the fault, and then measured the fault's displacement, or how much it had shifted.

The study found that fault slip rates have been five times faster since the last ice age than when the range was covered by glaciers. This research may review how other crevasses adjacent to glaciers respond to a warming climate.

Galen said the research adds to our understanding of what causes earthquakes, which is important for risk assessment. Fault monitoring may be required in areas where glaciers are rapidly retreating or large bodies of water are evaporating for increased seismic activity.

The results are also important for seismologists trying to reconstruct prehistoric seismic records and determine recurrence periods of active faults. These hydrological processes over geologic time must be taken into account in those calculations, Gallen said.

“This work suggests that the time of recurrence will not necessarily be periodic,” he added. “You can have periods of time where you have a bunch of earthquakes in quick succession and a lot of time where you don't have any earthquakes.”

The Sangre de Cristo Mountains were ideal for showing tectonic rebound from melting ice, the researchers said. The range is located along the Rio Grande Fault, which has an overall backslip rate that can be used as a baseline. Their research revealed intermittent and faster crevasse sliding rates along the range that corresponds to former glaciers. As the glaciers that had been suppressing the fault melted, the rate of slip accelerated to catch up with the base rate.

“It's basically like a little lever that adjusts the rate at which the fault moves, but that long-term rate is determined by the base rate of tectonic processes,” Galen said.

A public database of high-resolution elevation data for the Earth's surface served as the basis of the study. Hurtado and Galen surveyed the fault using high-resolution GPS instruments to augment elevation data and measure the fault's displacement. The timing of displacement was determined based on the age of the surrounding sediment deposits.

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