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2024 a 'typical' year for earthquakes in British Columbia: Victoria seismologist

2024 a 'typical' year for earthquakes in British Columbia: Victoria seismologist

 


Large movements in information mean that early warning systems can save seconds or minutes to prepare

With 325 years between coastal BC and the last subduction or strong earthquake, the model best describes 2024, says a seismologist with Natural Resources Canada.

Southwest British Columbia, where tectonic plates collide, is Canada's hotspot, with more than 1,200 earthquakes last year. Many were felt and most were offshore along active faults.

“There's always something going on here. We usually see small earthquakes every day that people don't feel,” John Cassidy said.

This is an average number for the area, as most of them are small or far enough away that they cannot be felt. Two deep earthquakes stand out because they were widely felt late in the year off Sydney and Tsawwassen.

On September 26, a 3.8-magnitude earthquake struck nearly 60 kilometers deep, making it felt by thousands despite its weakness. The quake was felt lightly in Vancouver and Victoria, according to the Canadian Earthquake Service, including as far as the tip of the Saanich Peninsula and as far as Nanaimo in the north and Sooke in the west.

Eight days later, residents felt a similar earthquake in the southwest of the country, with its epicenter 18 kilometers west of Tsawwassen.

“It's pretty typical. These deep earthquakes are common in the area,” Cassidy said.

“But it is a complex area because we have different types of earthquakes,” he added. “We have an oceanic plate that is moving towards us at a rate of four to six centimeters a year, and that has to do with how fast your fingernails grow.”

Adding up to four to six meters of movement in 100 years, the plates are locked together, and they move towards the area from the west. At the same time, they “store energy for one of these big earthquakes.”

While small earthquakes occur almost every day, subduction earthquakes occur in a subduction zone, where two tectonic plates collide and push one under the other. The most recent was a 9.0 magnitude earthquake that struck in 1700.

And somewhere in the middle in terms of strength are earthquakes in the Earth's crust up to 30 kilometers deep, like the two felt late last year, but closer to the surface. Those in the 4 to 6 degree range are capable of causing damage and occur every decade or so on the south coast.

None of them come with a warning.

“There are no signals or indications about when an earthquake will occur. We now have early warning systems for earthquakes,” Cassidy said.

An earthquake early warning system, developed by Natural Resources Canada, will go live in British Columbia in the spring of 2024. Nearly 100 base stations work together to detect strong earthquakes. Those above magnitude 5 that are close enough to communities that have systems in place will trigger a public order alert, similar to an Amber Alert.

“Depending on how far away the earthquake is, it really controls the amount of warning time you have. For one of the deep quakes, which happened off Sydney in October, you might have five or 10 seconds of warning here in Victoria,” Cassidy said.

The systems take advantage of the fact that modern information exchange is faster than rapid earthquake waves of three to four kilometers per second.

Being prepared for the future is as important as warning from seconds to minutes.

It includes simple steps like keeping shoes and a flashlight next to the bed, securing heavy curtains on the walls and bookshelves, and having basic emergency kits and travel bags ready for any emergency situation.

These tips, specifically for CRD, can be found at crd.bc.ca/prepare-yourself.

Cassidy said that while nature may be creating a huge push, the region is better prepared than ever. There have been huge leaps in equipment and interagency collaboration, more and deeper data around the world and locally, and even building codes developed with earthquakes in mind.

“Science is advancing very quickly,” he added. “Things are getting better all the time.”

Sources

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2/ https://www.pentictonwesternnews.com/news/2024-a-typical-year-for-earthquakes-in-bc-victoria-seismologist-7739093

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