The ceasefire after Earthquake in Myanmar provides a rare opportunity for disaster diplomacy

Bangkok (AFP)-The temporary ceasefire by the group of warriors in Myanmar was following an earthquake of 7.7 last week, a rare behavior of conflict that took thousands of lives and uprooting more than 3 million people since 2021.

Experts suggest that if the ceasefire – which was announced by opponents of the military rule first, then the army meets them – can provide an opportunity to work for peace.

A report issued on Wednesday by the Institute of Strategy and Politics – Myanmar said the disaster could serve as “an incentive to enhance cooperation between opponents, reduce conflict, and lay the foundation for peace.”

“At least, if there is an agreement on tactical disposal of the conflict and the cessation of hostilities, it can be considered a positive precedent,” said the Resident Research Center in Thailand.

But on Thursday, there were reports of new fighting.

Who are the competing forces?

In 2021, the Myanmar army seized power from the democratically elected government in Aung San Suu Ki, which sparked an armed opposition movement and civil war.

Despite a great advantage in numbers and weapons, the military government of General Min Aung Hinging lost control of most of the country for fighters supporting democracy and ethnic minority fighter forces, who are fighting for self -rule.

The National Unity Government said the shadow on Saturday that its armed wing, the Popular Defense Force, will not perform offensive operations for two weeks in the areas affected by the earthquake to facilitate relief activities. Power mostly includes local units working in defensive and ambush.

The three Muslim Brotherhood coalition, which consists of three armies, announced the strong ethnic guerrilla warfare, on Tuesday, the ceasefire for one month. Its groups control large areas of land in the northeast and western Myanmar, and a ceasefire gives them an opportunity to unify their grip.

On Wednesday night, the army, which has been widely said, announced that the weather explosions continued even after the earthquake, a unilateral ceasefire to help carry out rescue and recovery operations, until April 22.

All parties reserve the right to behave in self -defense. Another group of the ethnic minority fighting the army, Kachin Independence, has announced its ceasefire on Thursday.

Why did the army declare a ceasefire?

Its announcement was also confirmed, as Mainen Aung Hulang will also attend a conference in Thailand this week from the nations from the Bay of Bay.

Before the earthquake, he appeared at the conference a victory in his attempt to international legitimacy.

He and senior members are recruited in his government and punishable by many Western countries for their acquisition in 2021 and human rights. It is Main Ong Hlaying's first visit to a country other than the main supporters of his government – China, Russia and Russia, Belarus's ally – since he attended another regional meeting in Indonesia in 2021.

Since the resistance forces seized the ethical high ground by declaring the ceasefire, his prominent trip to Bangkok would have appeared darker on his government if they did not match them. Army critics were still protesting his participation in the meeting after his arrival on Thursday.

What are the chances of peace?

The Institute of Strategy and Policy Institute suggested that the results of the earthquake may include the continuation of the civil war, and even the increase in social unrest.

At the same time, “cancellation of tactical escalation” can “stop hostilities (which) can help relief earthquakes, protect civilians, ensure the flow of both local and international aid, and shows a commitment to the human spirit.”

The report said that “the strategic escalation” requires a ceasefire to carry out with measures to build confidence that aims at long -term political decisions, including the creation of safe areas, the establishment of humanitarian corridors to provide aid and facilitate joint management of aid by opposition groups.

Opportunities look slim.

The army tightened control and increased repression in the aftermath of previous natural disasters, especially Hurricane Nargis in 2008, killing more than 130,000 people, and Mocha Hurricane in 2023.

“Disaster diplomacy has rarely showed any successes so far, between countries and inside countries,” Ilan Kilman, a professor of disaster and health at College University in London, told Associated Press in an email interview.

“The Philippines always faces a large number of disasters, some of which led to a temporary ceasefire and none of them led to decisions of internal violent conflicts,” he said.

After December 2004, a peace agreement was reached in the province of Ash in Indonesia, which includes Islamic separatists, “but because of the ongoing negotiations that put the opportunity instead of the catastrophe that creates a new peace.”

“Several permanent peace deals appear through international pressure or mediation, instead of disasters or work to avoid disasters,” Kilman said. “Disaster diplomacy is currently that many governments do not give priority to peace or the welfare of their citizens.”

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