Why is Dhaka at high risk of earthquakes?

Have you ever heard about the epicenter of the earthquake in Narsingdi before the November 21 incident? On Friday, at least 10 people, including two children, were killed and several hundred injured after a 5.7-magnitude earthquake shook Dhaka, neighboring areas and other parts of the country, cracking buildings and collapsing debris and sending terrified residents onto the streets. Narsingdi alone recorded five deaths. For many, this was their first real experience of the earth's raw power. Although the tremor lasted only a few seconds, its impact revealed the extent of the vulnerability of areas near cities to seismic disasters. It was also a wake-up call for us to identify blind mistakes, among other priorities.

A blind mistake is one that leaves no visible scars on the landscape and does not break the surface. These faults can cause large earthquakes but are obscured by traditional geological surveys. Unlike well-known fault lines, their invisibility makes them uniquely dangerous. The possibility of such structures hidden beneath densely populated areas is heightened by recent tremors in central Bangladesh, which are far from the well-mapped Dawki or Madhopur faults. Because Bangladesh lies on soft alluvial soil and between tectonic boundaries, experts have long warned of the country's vulnerability to earthquakes.

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Many experts and public voices have expressed concern about our lack of preparedness even before Friday's earthquake and subsequent tremors. Dhaka's building stock is particularly vulnerable due to weak inspection systems, construction on reclaimed wetlands, and non-compliance with the Bangladesh National Building Code (BNBC).

In a huge city like Dhaka, an earthquake will not occur in isolation, but may lead to a series of cascading disasters, making the disaster much more deadly than the initial earthquake. Dhaka represents a multi-hazard environment due to its high population density, unregulated urbanization, soft soil issues, aging infrastructure, and restricted road networks. An earthquake can quickly lead to fires due to ruptured gas lines, structural failure, blocked roads, hazardous spills, electrical failure, water supply collapse, and urban flooding from broken pipelines. These secondary risks can quickly escalate, burdening emergency responders and trapping residents.

Global experience shows that the highest mortality rates usually result from successive events following an earthquake, rather than from the earthquake alone. In Japan, the deadly firestorms and fire spirals that devastated Tokyo and Yokohama after the Great Kanto Earthquake of 1923 claimed more lives than the violent earthquake itself, highlighting how quickly urban disasters can escalate into crushing catastrophes. Dhaka faces similar threats – one risk can trigger many others, escalating a large earthquake into a complex, multi-dimensional disaster that exceeds our current level of preparedness.

Against this background, what is most worrying is that planning at the national level has not continued. Although seismic zoning maps exist, their enforcement remains lax, and the risks of some older, densely populated neighborhoods have not been considered. This lack of preparedness is not hypothetical. A major earthquake could turn Dhaka into a “death trap” if immediate action is not taken. Meanwhile, urban planning experts advise decentralizing the capital to reduce disaster risks.

Although blind mistakes cannot be avoided, their damage can be reduced if Bangladesh can take decisive action. To identify blind fault activity earlier, we need to increase earthquake monitoring by installing a denser network of seismometers around Dhaka, Narsingdi, and other vulnerable areas. Strict enforcement of the building code is essential to ensure that buildings, especially older ones, undergo routine structural assessments and that buildings at risk are clearly labeled as capable of retrofitting.

Bangladesh currently has only a limited seismic network and not a comprehensive nationwide system, leaving the country lacking the scientific infrastructure needed to track the precise and vital geophysical signals that accompany tectonic stress. Likewise, although hydrological and geochemical observations exist for public water management and research, the country lacks a nationally coordinated hydrological, geochemical, and electromagnetic monitoring program specifically designed to detect earthquake-related anomalies such as sudden changes in groundwater, rising radon, or low-frequency electromagnetic disturbances. These gaps do not mean complete absence, but rather insufficient coverage and integration, which exacerbates preparedness deficits at a time when hidden faults and urban vulnerabilities require enhanced vigilance.

Our vulnerability to earthquakes is rooted in unsafe and substandard buildings and fragile urban systems, especially in Dhaka, Old Dhaka, Narayanganj, Gazipur, and other industrial areas, making structural safety the number one national priority. This requires the formation of a dedicated Building Regulatory Authority (BRA) to enforce BNBC nationwide, conduct city-wide structural surveys to classify buildings as safe or risky, rehabilitate critical public infrastructure such as hospitals, schools, police and fire stations, enforce the national seismic design and modernization roadmap, install automatic gas and electricity shut-off systems to prevent post-earthquake fires, and decentralize lifelines such as blood banks, fuel reserves and medical storage.

At the same time, community empowerment must be strengthened through a nationwide “45 Seconds Campaign,” formation of community emergency response teams, mandatory drills in all educational institutions, and continuous training of volunteers supported by digital databases. Prepared communities can save lives before formal rescue operations begin. In parallel, we must modernize national systems by expanding research on blind faults, increasing earthquake monitoring stations (especially in central regions), conducting small zoning studies in all major cities, establishing a fully operational National Emergency Operations Center, institutionalizing an Incident Management System (IMS) with INSARAG-compliant rescue protocols, and regularly updating laws, regulations, contingency plans, and contingency plans based on new scientific insights.

Finally, to save lives after a collision, the country must develop light, medium, and heavy USAR teams, preposition rescue and medical resources across the country, expand field hospitals and mobile surgical units, establish a robust mass casualty and dead body management system, enforce a national debris management policy to reopen mobility corridors within hours, and secure emergency restoration of water, electricity, and gas lines through bypass systems.

The fate of any megacity facing a potentially major earthquake depends on its level of preparedness, scientific foresight, and coordinated action. Without these measures, the earthquake could escalate into an unprecedented human tragedy, but with it it could turn into a manageable emergency, saving countless lives and preserving critical infrastructure.

Munira Sharmeen is an independent researcher who currently works as a joint campaigner for the National Citizen Party.

The opinions expressed in this article are the author's own.

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