Are the Alaska and Japan earthquakes a warning?

The earthquakes are not believed to be related. But it is a reminder of the inherent danger.

Researchers at the University of California are testing a 10-story building using an earthquake simulator

Researchers at UC San Diego simulated a 6.9 magnitude earthquake to see if this 10-story building would maintain its integrity.

Two earthquakes of magnitude 7 or greater struck days apart in Alaska and Japan, raising concerns that another major quake could be on the way.

The first earthquake hit Alaska on December 6 with a magnitude of 7.0, a large earthquake capable of causing severe damage if it did not occur in such a remote area near the Canadian border. The second earthquake, with a magnitude of 7.6, struck northern Japan on December 8, causing tsunami warnings to be lifted later, and injuring at least 30 people. Tens of thousands evacuated their homes.

Aftershocks were recorded for both earthquakes. On December 8, Japanese authorities warned of the possibility of a stronger earthquake within the next week, and called on residents from the northernmost island of Hokkaido to Chiba Prefecture, east of Tokyo, to be extremely cautious.

The earthquakes were notable for their strength.

On average, the USGS says about 16 major earthquakes are expected worldwide, including 15 with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher and one with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher. This is based on records dating back to approximately 1900. Over the past four to five decades, the long-term average number of major earthquakes per year has been exceeded by about twelve times.

But two such earthquakes in a short period of time happen from time to time and do not necessarily indicate another impending disaster.

“It doesn't happen all the time, but it's not that crazy,” said Brandon Schmandt, a professor at Rice University and an earthquake expert.

It's a reminder of an uncomfortable truth in seismology: Scientists know that catastrophic earthquakes are on the horizon, but they have no reliable way to predict when they will strike.

“No one can predict earthquakes,” the USGS said. “However, by investigating faults and past earthquakes, scientists can better assess the likelihood of future earthquakes and how intense they are shaking.”

How strange is it for two major earthquakes to strike?

Through “pure random chance,” it's actually not uncommon for two earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher to strike this close together in time, according to Caltech seismologist Lucy Jones.

“Our average earthquake strength is 7.0 a month somewhere in the world,” Jones said.

The average is randomly distributed, Jones said. We may go several months without having one, and then see several times over a short period of time. Jones said she would estimate, based on probabilities, that paired earthquakes of magnitude 7 or higher are likely to occur within a half-week of each other once every few years.

“It doesn't seem like this happens all the time, but we looked and couldn't find any physical connection,” she said.

One earthquake can trigger another, as in an aftershock, but that's not the relationship between the Alaska and Japanese earthquakes, which appear to be completely unrelated, Schmandt said. Aftershocks tend to occur in the same geographic area as the main earthquake.

Jones said there is about a 5% chance after any earthquake that another, larger quake will follow within a few days. She said that although a 5% chance may not seem like a lot, it is much greater than the basic chances, which is why Japanese authorities remain on high alert at the moment.

A recent example occurred in 2019 near Ridgecrest, California, Jones noted. A 6.4-magnitude earthquake struck on the Fourth of July, followed by less severe aftershocks. A day later, a 7.1 magnitude earthquake became the largest to hit Southern California in 20 years.

Is the United States at risk of devastating earthquakes? What about “big”?

Most of the United States is at risk of devastating earthquakes over the next century, according to the U.S. Geological Survey, which published a report last year that found hundreds of previously unidentified faults across the country.

People in 37 states have experienced earthquakes of magnitude 5.0 or greater in the past two centuries, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.

The danger is concentrated along the west coast and southern part of Alaska, where the most active tectonic plate boundaries are located.

Fears of a so-called “big” event, a massive earthquake causing untold destruction, have long alarmed residents in these areas. Experts say this could happen at any time, or not for long. There can be more than one “big one”.

The Big Thing: Is California overdue for a major, devastating earthquake?

Schmandt said the Cascadia subduction zone, which extends from northern California through Oregon and Washington and into Canada, has the potential for a potential event that could be considered a “big event.” The last known earthquake on this fault occurred in January 1700, with an estimated magnitude of 9.0, according to Oregon Emergency Management.

“Currently, scientists predict that there is approximately a 37% probability that a magnitude 7.1+ earthquake will occur in this fault zone within the next 50 years. This event will be felt throughout the Pacific Northwest,” the department said.

What do earthquake magnitudes mean?

According to Michigan Technological University, the magnitude of earthquakes can have the following effects:

Below 2.5: Generally not noticeable 2.5 to 5.4: Little or no damage 5.5 to 6.0: Minor damage to buildings 6.1 to 6.9: Major damage 7.0 to 7.9: Major earthquake. Serious Damage 8.0 or greater: Serious damage, can devastate communities

Contributing: Elizabeth Wise and Terry Collins, USA TODAY; Reuters

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