Earthquakes raise tension, but is the “big one” close to California?

The moment a tsunami hits a Russian coastal city after the earthquake

A massive 8.8-magnitude earthquake off Russia's Kamchatka Peninsula triggered a tsunami that destroyed buildings in a nearby coastal town.

A series of powerful earthquakes abroad and smaller quakes at home have Californians increasingly asking the same question: Is a “big one” on the horizon?

Two earthquakes measuring 7.0 or greater struck within days of each other in Alaska and Japan earlier this week.

The first earthquake, with a magnitude of 7.6, struck Alaska on December 6, and the second, with a magnitude of 7.6, struck northern Japan on December 8, triggering tsunami warnings that were later lifted after it injured at least 30 people and prompted mass evacuations.

The earthquake was felt in Alaska within a 500-mile radius near its epicenter along the Canadian border and came weeks after a 6.0-magnitude tremor struck the state on Thanksgiving Day.

Aftershocks were recorded for both the Japanese and Alaska earthquakes.

On December 8, Japanese authorities warned of the possibility of a stronger earthquake within the next week, and called on residents from the northernmost island of Hokkaido to Chiba Prefecture, east of Tokyo, to be extremely cautious.

Earthquakes were felt from the Bay Area to the Central Coast

While California ranks second in the United States in terms of seismic activity, most earthquakes are small and go largely unnoticed. Alaska leads the United States in seismic activity.

However, in November, a wave of earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay Area and Central Coast caused people to worry.

A series of six earthquakes of magnitude 3.0 or higher were centered around the East Bay in early November, the largest of which was a magnitude 3.8 in San Ramon on November 9, and then again on December 8, when a few dozen small quakes (the largest was a magnitude 3.7) struck the area, the San Francisco Chronicle reported.

A USGS seismologist told the Los Angeles Times that “seismic swarms” like the one that struck San Ramon are not unusual for the region and have occurred in 2002, 2003 and 2015.

Later in the month, a series of earthquakes began in Gilroy and the surrounding San Francisco Bay Area with a magnitude 4.0 tremor on November 26, with mild shaking felt from San Jose to Salinas.

The quake occurred, according to the US Geological Survey, about five miles east of Gilroy in Santa Clara County at 6:16 a.m. Wednesday.

But the series of earthquakes is not over for the area, as the USGS reported two earthquakes with preliminary magnitudes of 2.7 and 3.6 about 5 miles east of Gilroy and about 3 miles southeast of Gilroy, respectively.

Every year, California experiences earthquakes of average magnitude 5.5 or higher, which are strong enough to cause moderate damage to structures.

Fault line activity

Earthquakes occur when two sides of a fault suddenly slide against each other, according to the California Department of Environmental Conservation, and there are hundreds of faults identified in the state — about 200 of which are considered potentially dangerous based on their slip rates.

While Alaska may see more and larger earthquakes than the Golden State, Californians tend to live closer to the fault line.

More than 70% of the state's population lives within 30 miles of a fault where high ground shaking could occur within the next 50 years, according to state data.

The earthquakes that shook the East Bay and Gilroy area earlier this fall occurred along the Calaveras Fault, part of the San Andreas and Hayward fault system that can produce earthquakes with a magnitude of at least 6.7, the San Francisco Chronicle reported.

Consecutive earthquakes along the San Andreas Fault, which runs from the Salton Sea in Imperial County to Cape Mendocino in Humboldt County, often indicate pressure changes, according to California Earthquake Consultants.

What are the chances of the “big event” happening in California?

With improved tools and communications, the National Earthquake Information Center has been able to locate about 20,000 earthquakes worldwide each year, or approximately 55 earthquakes per day.

According to records dating back to 1900, the center expects about 16 major earthquakes in any given year, including 15 with a magnitude of 7 and one with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.

In California, the 2014 California Earthquake Probabilities Task Force updated 30-year earthquake forecasts.

The forecast concluded that there was a 72% chance that at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.7 or greater would occur somewhere in the San Francisco Bay Area before 2043.

Contrary to popular myth, a cluster of small earthquakes may relieve some of the pressure along the fault, but they “usually do not significantly impact the potential for larger earthquakes,” according to the Cal Office of Emergency Services. “In fact, a series of small earthquakes can sometimes indicate a larger one is on the horizon, but not always.”

So, remember that earthquakes are unpredictable and can happen at any time in the Golden State.

What am I supposed to do during an earthquake?

It depends on where you are.

Here's what to do in the following situations, according to Ready.gov:

Turn face down and cover your head and neck with a pillow if you are in bed. If you are outside, stay outside and away from buildings. If you are inside, stay. Avoid doorways and do not run outside.

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