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The Japanese government estimates that 18,000 people could die in a major earthquake in the Tokyo metropolitan area

The Japanese government estimates that 18,000 people could die in a major earthquake in the Tokyo metropolitan area



This aerial photo shows a vehicle sitting on a damaged road in Tohoku town, Aomori Prefecture, northern Japan, on December 9, 2025, following a strong earthquake late on the night of December 8. (Photo / KYODO NEWS VIA AP)

TOKYO – A powerful earthquake, likely to strike beneath Tokyo and its surrounding areas over the next few decades, could kill as many as 18,000 people, according to damage estimates released by the government on Friday.

The government committee said the latest figure, prepared under a scenario of a 7.3-magnitude earthquake centered in the southern part of central Tokyo, is about 20 percent lower than the previous estimate in 2013, due to improvements in earthquake-ready buildings and fire prevention measures.

The size of the economic damage is expected to reach 82.6 trillion yen (about $530 billion) in the worst-case scenario, which is less than the previous calculation of 95 trillion yen.

Read also: Bank of Japan raises interest rates to the highest level in 30 years

The government believes there is about a 70% chance of a 7.0 magnitude earthquake occurring in Tokyo and its surrounding areas within the next 30 years.

The worst-case scenario is for the earthquake to strike on a winter evening with winds of 28.8 kilometers per hour. Deaths are expected across Tokyo and four neighboring prefectures, with 8,000 people expected to die, or more than 40% of the total, in Tokyo alone.

Sources

1/ https://Google.com/

2/ https://www.chinadailyasia.com/article/625746

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