Tokyo inland earthquake likely kills 18,000 people: new government estimates

News from Japan

Community 19 December 2025 at 16:54 (JST)

TOKYO, Dec. 19 (Jiji Press) — In a worst-case scenario, up to about 18,000 people would be killed mainly in Tokyo and its three neighboring prefectures if a strong inland quake with a magnitude of about 7 strikes in the heart of the capital, the government said in its new damage estimate on Friday.

The government said economic losses could reach 83 trillion yen.

According to the new estimate prepared by a working group, such a massive earthquake would reach at least 6 on Japan's 7-magnitude earthquake intensity scale in many areas mainly in Tokyo and the three prefectures of Chiba, Kanagawa and Saitama.

The damage is expected to become worse if the earthquake hits the capital area around 6 p.m. on a winter day while winds are blowing at 8 meters per second, causing about 110,000 buildings to collapse and about 270,000 others to burn. About 5,300 people will be killed in the building collapse and about 12,000 in the fires.

However, the total number of buildings that are likely to collapse or burn is down more than 30 percent from previous government estimates in 2013, thanks to advances in residential seismic retrofitting, wider use of seismic crushers, and reduced opportunities for fire use. The total death toll is estimated at less than 20 percent.

[Copyright The Jiji Press, Ltd.]

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