Earthquake weather? Why do scientists say it is a myth?

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The Golden Gate Bridge can be seen through a mix of rain and splashing Gulf water in Sausalito, California on January 5, 2023. (Photo by Josh Edelson/AFP via Getty Images)

SAN FRANCISCO – After a recent series of small earthquakes near San Ramon, many people across the Bay Area have been asking the same question:

“Is this earthquake weather?”

It's a common belief, especially in California, but scientists are clear there is no such thing.

Where does the legend come from?

The idea of ​​seismic weather goes back centuries, long before modern seismology. People noticed that some earthquakes occurred on warm, calm, or foggy days, and assumed a connection.

But the truth is that these weather conditions are very common in California, while earthquakes occur randomly, sometimes during storms, sometimes during heat waves, and sometimes on cold, cloudy days.

When the two things happen at the same time, our brains naturally associate them.

What actually causes earthquakes?

Earthquakes are caused by the buildup of stress along deep underground faults, often miles below the Earth's surface. When this pressure is suddenly released, the ground shakes.

Weather systems, including rain, wind, and changes in temperature or atmospheric pressure, simply do not reach deep enough to trigger earthquakes.

In the case of the recent San Ramon swarm, seismologists say the shaking is related to movement along smaller fault lines near the Calaveras Fault, a known active part of the Bay Area fault system.

Why swarms make people skeptical

Earthquake swarms, which are groups of many small earthquakes over days or weeks, tend to attract attention because people feel multiple tremors in a short period of time.

When these swarms occur during unstable weather, foggy mornings, or seasonal changes, the legend resurfaces.

But scientists confirm:

Swarms are not unusual in the Bay Area, and they are not weather dependent, so they do not automatically mean a major earthquake is coming. Can rain or pressure changes cause earthquakes?

While heavy rainfall can sometimes contribute to landslides or soil movement, there is no evidence that storms trigger earthquakes on major faults such as the San Andreas or Calaveras.

These faults are driven by the movement of tectonic plates, not surface conditions.

So why have earthquakes become more common recently?

There are two main reasons why it seems like earthquakes are becoming more common.

The first is better discovery. Current seismic instruments detect a greater number of small earthquakes than in the past

The second is to raise awareness. Earthquake apps and alerts mean we notice every tremor.

Earthquakes have always happened, but we're better at tracking them now.

Bottom line

Instead of worrying about the weather, experts say the best thing Californians can do is stay prepared:

Secure heavy furniture, learn to “drop, cover, and hold” and have an emergency kit ready

Because although we cannot predict earthquakes, we can be prepared for them.

Source: Original reporting by KTVU's Roberta Gonzalez

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