The study suggests that a major earthquake could occur in a time period of less than 100 years

A team of Japanese researchers, who analyzed the powerful earthquake that struck near Russia's Kamchatka Peninsula in July, said a 9.0 magnitude quake could occur in roughly the same area at shorter intervals than previously thought.

The 2025 magnitude 8.8 Kamchatka earthquake followed a magnitude 9 event in 1952.

Team members, including Professor Yagi Yuji from the University of Tsukuba, used seismic waves and other data to perform a detailed analysis of the 2025 earthquake.

They said the results indicate that the quake ruptured in roughly the same area as it occurred 73 years ago, with a maximum slip of about 12 meters at the boundary where oceanic and continental plates meet.

The Kamchatka Peninsula is where the Pacific plate is subducting beneath the Okhotsk plate at a convergence rate of about 8 centimeters per year.

The convergence of the plates over 73 years is about 6 metres, so the slip deficit accumulated since the 1952 earthquake alone appears insufficient to explain the major slip of the 2025 event, the researchers said.

They believe that a phenomenon called “overtopping” has occurred – a process in which slip at plate boundaries during an earthquake is so great that it exceeds the equilibrium stress level during rupture.

The phenomenon led to the release of not only strain that had accumulated over 73 years, but also some strains that had not been released during the 1952 event, they said.

The team said it believes overtopping occurred in the massive earthquake that struck Japan's Tohoku region in 2011.

Professor Yagi said this phenomenon could lead to shorter recurrence periods for huge earthquakes.

He said their study shows that people should not lower their guard thinking that a major earthquake will not strike now because the last major earthquake did not happen for a long time.

He warned that the same phenomenon could occur along the Nankai Basin and Chishima Trench, as well as the Sagami Basin along which the Great Kanto Earthquake of 1923 occurred.

The professor said that it is important to keep in mind that a huge earthquake could strike at any time, and necessary measures must be taken.

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