The seismic hazard in J&K changes from Zone V to Zone VI

Srinagar, December 26: Deep in the Tibetan plateau, the Indian continent is being torn apart in slow motion, an invisible tear that may quietly rewrite the dangers of an earthquake in Kashmir.

A new scientific study links deep tectonic rupture beneath Tibet to rising seismic pressure across the Himalayas, with India upgrading Jammu and Kashmir from seismic zone five to the newly created and more dangerous zone six, indicating stronger shaking, greater potential for damage, and a more dangerous geological reality in the region.

A pioneering scientific study published earlier this year in a prestigious international journal revealed that the Indian tectonic plates are “rupturing” deep within the Tibetan Plateau.

This process could affect seismic patterns across the Himalayan region, including increasing seismic risks in Jammu and Kashmir.

The study, “The Indian Plate Subducted Under the Tibetan Plateau Is Being Ripped Up,” is authored by Lin Liu, Danian Shi, and Simon L. Klemperer.

It was published in Communications Earth and Environment, a Springer Nature publication, on 2 August 2025.

It is noteworthy that “The Teardrop” is located in the eastern Himalayas.

Experts warn that this newly identified rupture in tectonic plates highlights the vulnerabilities of this seismically active region.

The main results indicate 'vertical orogenic rupture' of the Indian plate along the north-south boundary at approximately 90-92°E longitude; West of 90°E, the Indian lithosphere overlies the Tibetan crust intact, extending about 100 km north of the Yarlung-Zangbo line.

Orthogonal rupture is a tectonic process in which the Indian plate, as it subducts beneath the Tibetan Plateau, splits along the northern and southern boundaries and perpendicular to the mountain range.

This causes the lithospheric mantle to detach and sink into the mantle, while the crust remains intact.

In Jammu and Kashmir, located west of the rupture (about 74-77°E), the underplating process described in the study exacerbates concerns about high-intensity earthquakes.

Jammu and Kashmir falls mostly within seismic zone V, the highest risk category in India's ex-seismic zone map.

The updated 2025 National Seismic Hazard Map (released in November 2025) by the Bureau of Indian Standards has elevated the entire Himalayan arc, including Jammu and Kashmir, to the newly created Region VI.

This reflects the extreme tectonic weakness of J&K and the entire Himalayan range due to the continuous collision of the Indian and Eurasian plates.

The new area classification indicates that peak ground acceleration (PGA) may exceed 0.36 g.

PGA is the maximum acceleration experienced by the Earth during an earthquake, and is measured in gravitational acceleration (g).

It is the main indicator for seismic risk assessment and an indicator of structural damage.

PGA values ​​of 0.5 g or higher were also calculated for the region, as identified in the 2025 Frontiers study on Himalayan tunnels.

This translates into a high risk of earthquakes of magnitude 8.0 or greater.

Active faults such as the Main Himalayan Thrust and the Main Boundary Thrust, as well as the region's peculiar topography and glacial instability, increase the risk.

The 2005 7.6-magnitude earthquake devastated parts of the region, killing thousands and exposing infrastructure weaknesses.

“This variation in lithospheric structures at 90-92°E…suggests that the subducting Indian plate is being torn apart along a convergence direction,” the authors of the new study on plate collisions said earlier in the paper.

This process unfolds over geological time scales, millions of years, and does not involve an imminent surface-level partition of the Indian subcontinent, contrary to sensationalist claims online.

This gap is located in the eastern Himalayas, near the border between India and Bhutan.

However, the role of rupture in crustal fragmentation could redistribute stress along the entire Himalayan arc.

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