Can ionospheric disturbances affect earthquakes?

KYOTO, Japan – Researchers at Kyoto University have proposed a new physics model that explores how disturbances in the ionosphere can exert electrostatic forces within the Earth’s crust and possibly contribute to the initiation of large earthquakes under specific conditions.

The study does not aim to predict earthquakes, but rather provides a theoretical mechanism describing how ionospheric charge changes – caused by intense solar activity such as solar flares – can interact with fragile pre-existing structures in the Earth’s crust and influence rifting processes.

In the proposed model, it is assumed that fractured zones within the Earth’s crust contain water of high temperature and high pressure, and are likely to be in a supercritical state. These regions behave electrically like capacitors and are capacitively coupled to both the Earth’s surface and the lower ionosphere, forming a large-scale electrostatic system.

When strong solar activity increases the electron density in the ionosphere, a negatively charged layer can form in the lower ionosphere. Through capacitive coupling, this space charge may induce strong electric fields within nanometer-scale voids within regions of the broken shell. The resulting electrostatic pressure can reach magnitudes similar to tidal or gravitational pressures known to affect fault stability.

Quantitative estimates in the study indicate that ionospheric perturbations associated with large solar flares—corresponding to increases in total electron content of several tens of TEC units—can generate electrostatic pressures on the order of several megapascals within crustal voids.

Ionospheric anomalies, such as increased electron density, decreased ionospheric height, and slowed anomalous propagation of medium-sized ionospheric disturbances, have been frequently observed before major earthquakes. Traditionally, these phenomena have been interpreted as results of pressure buildup within the Earth’s crust.

The new model offers a complementary perspective by proposing a two-way interaction: while crustal processes may influence the ionosphere, ionospheric perturbations themselves may also exert feedback forces on the crust. This framework offers a possible physical explanation linking space weather phenomena to seismic processes without invoking direct causality.

The study discusses recent large earthquakes in Japan, including the 2024 Noto Peninsula earthquake, as examples that are tentatively consistent with the proposed mechanism. In these cases, intense solar flare activity occurred shortly before the seismic events. The authors stress that such a temporal coincidence does not prove a direct causal relationship, but is consistent with a scenario in which ionospheric perturbations act as a contributing factor when the crust is already in a critical state.

By integrating concepts from plasma physics, atmospheric science, and geophysics, the proposed model expands the traditional view of earthquakes as purely internal Earth processes. The results suggest that monitoring ionospheric conditions, coupled with subsurface observations, may help improve scientific understanding of earthquake initiation processes and assess seismic hazards.

Future research will focus on combining GNSS-based high-resolution ion tomography with space weather data to elucidate the conditions under which ionospheric perturbations may exert a significant electrostatic influence on the Earth’s crust.

Publication information

【DOI】https://doi.org/10.34343/ijpest.2026.20.e01003

Akira Mizuno, Mingwei Kao, Ken Umino (2026). A possible mechanism for ionospheric anomalies to trigger earthquakes—the electrostatic coupling between the ionosphere and crust and the resulting electrical forces acting within the crust—is described. International Journal of Environmental Plasma Science and Technology, 20, 1, e01003.

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