A ground-based study suggests a possible link between solar flares and earthquakes

Earthquakes are one of many natural phenomena that, despite technological advances, we have yet to predict in advance. Researchers in Japan – a country frequently hit by devastating earthquakes – suggest we look to another source: the sun.

In a recent paper published in the International Journal of Environmental Plasma Science and Technology, researchers looked at the possibility of solar activity being linked to earthquakes. When solar flares disrupt Earth’s magnetic field, they also cause subtle changes in Earth’s upper atmosphere, which trickle down to electrical forces that cause shifts in our planet’s crust, scientists said. These forces are weak, but they may be the straw that breaks the camel’s back.

“Let me be clear, we are not claiming that solar flares generate tectonic stress,” Ken Umino, the study’s senior author and an applied mathematician at Kyoto University, told Gizmodo. “Our argument is about timing, not energy. When a fault is already close to failure, even a small disturbance may shift when rupture occurs.”

Crowded Parts of the Earth A diagram indicating the extent of the Earth’s ionosphere. Image source: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center/Mary Pat Hrebek-Keith

The study’s model takes Earth’s crust and the ionosphere — a part of Earth’s upper atmosphere filled with charged particles — as a giant electrical circuit. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), radio communications and satellite systems rely on this specific aspect of the ionosphere.

This also means that the ionosphere tends to be strongly affected by solar phenomena, such as solar flares and geomagnetic storms, which change the electromagnetic profile of the atmosphere.

On the other hand, the Earth’s crust has its own share of increased electromagnetic activity. After all, the Earth’s magnetic field itself is the product of the displacement of molten iron and hot nickel in the Earth’s outer core. This constant movement of hot, bulging stuff underground gives the Earth’s crust permanent magnetism, according to the USGS.

A chain of electrons

In this paper, the researchers combine the electromagnetic properties of these two layers. Because the ionosphere is sensitive to solar activity, powerful charged particles within a solar flare can force the ionospheric electrons to move downward.

This height increases the electron density at lower altitudes and disrupts the electrostatic balance in the Earth’s crust. Once the pressure reaches a certain level, it can generate enough force to transform a fault in the Earth’s crust. Normally, the Earth’s crust would not be disturbed much by such disturbances, but things could be different for a “highly stressed fault,” Umino said.

The research finds that this pattern is consistent with space weather patterns before the Noto Peninsula earthquakes in Japan on January 1, 2024. Even for Japan, where earthquakes are common, these events were truly catastrophic, killing at least 700 people and damaging 204,903 structures. Japan is among the most seismically active regions in the world, experiencing about 1,500 earthquakes every year. A day earlier, the Earth was struck by the strongest solar flare recorded for 2023. Likewise, another earthquake occurred in December 2025 following a magnitude X flare, Umino added.

Coincidence or pattern?

This is not the first time scientists have suggested this connection, although the question is now more part of the USGS FAQ section than academic circles. Likewise, while the new study provides an exciting mathematical analysis, other experts have some concerns about its validity.

In an email to Gizmodo, Nicholas Schmir, a geophysicist at the University of Maryland, called the study “highly speculative.” The paper “does not provide a comprehensive analysis or well-supported evidence that their proposed mechanism links solar flares and earthquakes,” Shamir said.

“Instead, they present the coincidence of one solar flare and one earthquake, which is most likely just a coincidence,” he added.

Viktor Novikov, a geophysicist at the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Live Science that the model was “overly simplified” and did not take into account factors such as the electrical resistance of rock layers in the Earth’s crust that could cancel out the effects suggested in the model.

Not a “revolution”

In response, Umino acknowledged the comments, saying the research “does not demand definitive statistical proof.” But he responded by saying: “He described the relationship as… [a] Serendipity assumes that seismic systems are dynamically isolated from space weather” and that “in complex systems science, cross-scale interactions are common near instabilities.”

When asked about plans to further validate the model, Umino said the team is currently planning to conduct a large-scale analysis. He added that if they find “no measurable conditional effect,” that’s it, and it will be rejected.

“We are not claiming revolution,” Umino said. “If the data refute this, the current framework stands. If there is a measurable timing adjustment, seismic hazard models may need to be expanded. Either way, testing the question has scientific value.”

High risk

Strictly speaking, the paper suggests that a solar flare triggers an already stressed fault beyond the tipping point, triggering an earthquake, not that solar flares are directly related to earthquakes. And again, it could be argued that, in the bigger picture of things, millions of other small things in different Earth systems could serve a similar function to solar flares in the new model.

This means that the study gives us a lot to think about. As Umino himself says, it will take years of careful statistical analysis to make a final judgement.

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