Researchers warn that the next major earthquake in Israel is only a matter of time

Historical records documenting earthquakes in the Levant and the resulting damage and loss of life have accumulated over the past 3,000 years. Professor Moti Zohar from the Faculty of Environmental Sciences at the University of Haifa, in collaboration with Dr. Amos Salamon from the Israel Geological Survey and Professor Rehav (Boni) Rubin from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, conducted a critical review and in-depth analysis of existing historical information about major earthquakes that struck the Land of Israel and the surrounding area.

The researchers examined data from the first millennium B.C. to the July 1927 earthquake and seismic events recorded by seismometers in the 20th century. To analyze the events statistically and estimate recurrence intervals, the researchers focused on the past 1,000 years, for which available information is more reliable and complete than for earlier periods.

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A building in the ancient city of Beit Shean (Scythopolis), which was destroyed by an earthquake in the middle of the eighth century AD

(Photo: Shimon Bar/Shutterstock)

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Shalabi Castle in Tiberias, which was damaged in the strong earthquake that struck it in January 1837

(Photo: Moti Zohar)

The researchers found that an earthquake causing some level of damage in Israel and surrounding areas, even minor damage, occurs on average about once every 45 years. In contrast, an earthquake causing serious damage and casualties occurs approximately every 55 years, while a particularly devastating earthquake occurs approximately once every 170 years.

However, earthquakes do not occur in a regular cycle, making it impossible to predict when the next one will strike.

“These results reduce by half the generally accepted general estimate that a major earthquake occurs once every 100 years,” Zohar said. “The implication is that the earthquake risk to Israel is tangible and real. Therefore, there is great importance in preparing at both the personal and national levels, strengthening old buildings and implementing emergency guidelines for earthquake response.”

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Ruins of Byzantine-era churches in the ancient Roman city of Susita (Hippos), destroyed in the earthquake of 749 AD

(Photo: I-Ivanov/Shutterstock)

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A man examines ground cracks in the Dead Sea caused by the 1927 earthquake

(Photo: American Colony Archives)

During the study, researchers identified recurring patterns of damage in numerous communities throughout the Land of Israel and its surrounding areas over the past 2,000 years, especially along the Dead Sea Rift, also known as the Syrian-African Rift, the most active seismic zone in the region.

Among the cities repeatedly affected were Jerusalem, Tiberias, Safed, Acre, Nablus, Ramla, Jericho, Beit Shean, and even Tire in Lebanon. Jerusalem, for example, is mentioned in historical sources as having suffered repeated earthquake damage dating back to ancient times, including in the years 363, 749, 1033, and 1927.

Tiberias and Safed also suffered severe damage in several strong earthquakes that caused casualties. One of these earthquakes in January 1837 destroyed large parts of both cities and killed many people.

“It is important to emphasize that the same cities that were damaged in the past, and which today are more densely populated and densely built, are expected to be bombed again in the future,” Zohar said.

The study reinforces the understanding that the main source of earthquakes in the region is the Dead Sea Rift, which extends from the Gulf of Eilat to southern Türkiye and is home to millions of people along its path.

Zohar and his colleagues said the general implication is clear: Israel is located in a tectonically active region, and major earthquakes are not a rare scenario. Therefore, the relevant question is not whether the earthquake will happen, because it will certainly happen, but when it is expected to happen.

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Earthquake simulation exercise in Israel

(Photo: Zakka)

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A damaged building in Jerusalem during the earthquake that struck Israel in 1927

(Photo: Courtesy of Dov Friedman)

Another important finding from the study relates to the fact that some of the information that earthquake researchers have relied on for decades was incorrect or unsupported. Dozens of earthquakes previously believed to have struck Israel either never occurred or occurred outside the Land of Israel without causing any damage in the country or surrounding areas.

The researchers identified errors that had developed in the scientific literature over many years of study, including confusion between sources, misinterpretations and duplicate records. For example, an earthquake attributed to 92 BC has appeared repeatedly in scientific catalogs for many years, but a recent re-examination by Dr. Yaakov Kurtz of the Geological Survey of Israel found that it was not in fact based on a reliable historical source.

One of the study’s main conclusions is that Israel’s current earthquake-resistant building standard, Israeli Standard 413, was based on a list of historical earthquakes that contained errors and inaccurate reports. An extensive update of the standard is currently underway by the Israel Geological Survey.

Researchers have now created a new, vetted list of earthquakes that affected the Land of Israel and surrounding areas, providing decision-makers with a more reliable and accurate scientific basis for assessing seismic risks in Israel.

“The updated list of historic earthquakes in Israel is an essential tool for the country’s emergency authorities,” Zohar said. “It will enable better national risk assessment and more appropriate preparation for the next earthquake, which will certainly reduce the expected damage and loss of life.”

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