The San Andreas Fault in Southern California is reaching its highest level of pressure in 1,000 years

New research finds that the San Andreas and San Jacinto fault systems are in a “critically loaded” state, with stress levels that could support large, multi-fault earthquakes near major California cities.

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New research finds that the San Andreas and San Jacinto fault in Southern California are more stressed now than at any time in 1,000 years, increasing the long-term risk of earthquakes for millions. Scientists describe the fault system as “critically loaded,” with stress building up across multiple segments that could one day be linked by a single, larger earthquake. Experts say the San Andreas is a sliding plate boundary, not a fault that could drop California into the ocean, and even large earthquakes cause lateral movement, not breakup. A rupture involving the San Andreas and San Jacinto faults could deliver stronger and longer tremors to cities like Los Angeles, San Bernardino, Riverside and the Coachella Valley. Although earthquakes cannot be predicted, California’s Earthquake Early Warning System and simple steps like Drop, Cover and Hold On can help residents prepare for future shaking.

The build-up of tectonic stress beneath Southern California could have far-reaching consequences for millions of residents from the Coachella Valley to Los Angeles. New research from the University of Hawaii at Manoa warns that major fault systems in the region are under some of the highest pressures seen in at least 1,000 years.

Scientists say the San Andreas and San Jacinto fault — which run through Inland Empire, San Bernardino and Riverside counties and are located near densely populated areas — do not indicate an imminent earthquake. But the system is “critically loaded,” raising the possibility of a powerful rupture that could impact communities across Southern California.

The study suggests that stress builds across multiple connected fault segments, increasing the likelihood of a larger multi-fault earthquake rather than a more isolated event — a scenario that could exacerbate damage.

The study, published in the journal Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, cites Cajon Pass as a major area of ​​concern. The intersection between two fault systems can act as an “earthquake gate,” either preventing fractures from crossing between faults or allowing them to link into one larger event.

The system is under intense stress more than 160 years since the last major rupture, said lead author Lillian Burkhard, a research affiliate at the Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Science at the University of Hawaii and a scientist at the University of Bern.

“Right now, with pressures at historically high levels across the region,” Burkhard said.

Can the San Andreas Fault break completely?

The San Andreas Fault is not a fault that could “split” and drop part of California away from the continent. It’s a sliding plate boundary, meaning the Pacific plate and North American plate are sliding past each other horizontally, not pulling apart, according to the USGS.

Therefore, even in a very large earthquake, what occurs is lateral movement along the fault, not disintegration of the land mass. Parts of California can suddenly move by feet or even dozens of feet during a major rupture, but both sides remain part of the same crustal system.

There are other tectonic places on Earth where continents break up and eventually form new oceans — such as the East African Rift, which is in the process of splitting into two tectonic plates — but the San Andreas system isn’t one of them. It is a sliding boundary, where plates slide past each other instead of apart.

However, over millions of years, continued movement along the fault could gradually bring Los Angeles and San Francisco closer together, geological models suggest.

What would happen if the San Andreas Fault ruptured?

Surface rupture occurs when movement along a fault deep within the Earth penetrates to the surface. According to the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network, it is one of the clearest physical expressions of an earthquake, showing permanent deformation as two sides of a fault slide over each other.

Most earthquakes do not produce surface rupture, according to the USGS. Some faults do not reach the surface, and even when they do, rupture does not always propagate all the way to the top during a given event.

When surface rupture occurs, it can produce either horizontal or vertical displacements, depending on the type of fault. Strike-slip faults, such as the San Andreas Fault, usually cause horizontal displacement, while strike-slip faults can produce vertical displacement. Some earthquakes involve a combination of both.

In the case of a large rupture, strong shaking can last from tens of seconds to more than a minute. The most severe damage may occur near a fault and in areas built on soft or water-saturated soil, which can amplify vibration and increase the risk of liquefaction. Scientists point out that infrastructure built across active faults is particularly vulnerable, as surface rupture can directly offset roads, buildings and other structures that extend across the fault’s footprint.

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Could California fall into the ocean?

California will not fall into the ocean. They lie on solid blocks of Earth’s crust that form part of two moving tectonic plates: the Pacific Plate and the North American Plate. These plates meet along the San Andreas Fault, sliding horizontally past each other at a rate of about 45 millimeters per year, the same rate as your fingernails grow.

This type of boundary is called a transform fault, which means that the underlying movement is lateral rather than vertical. Because the movement is lateral, there is no geological mechanism for California to fall or “fall” into the ocean, according to the USGS. Instead, over millions of years, parts of the California coast gradually shift to the northwest compared to North America, slowly reshaping the region but not separating it from the continent.

How many feet has California moved in the past 1,000 years?

Over the past 1,000 years, California has moved about 140 to 160 feet northwest along the San Andreas Fault, based on an average rate of movement of about 45 to 50 mm per year. This adds up to roughly half a football field of movement over a thousand years.

This movement is not smooth or evenly distributed. Some sections of the fault “creep” slowly, while others remain closed for long periods and release energy in earthquakes. It is not the entire country that moves as one rigid bloc; Instead, it is a network of crustal pieces that move along an extensive fault system.

San Andreas Fault Map What causes earthquakes?

The Earth consists of four layers: the inner core, outer core, mantle, and crust. The crust and the top of the mantle form another region called the lithosphere, which acts like the skin surrounding the Earth’s surface.

However, the lithosphere is not one piece, but is divided into puzzle-like pieces called tectonic plates, according to the USGS. These parts of the lithosphere are not stationary and move slowly.

When tectonic plates move close to each other, they sometimes collide or collide. This puts pressure on the edges of the plates. When the pressure becomes too great, it creates cracks called “flaws.” The point where these faults move against each other is called the ‘fault line’.

When there is a lot of friction between fault lines, energy is suddenly released, creating seismic waves that cause an earthquake.

Why are earthquakes so common in California?

California lies along the border between two huge tectonic plates – the Pacific Plate and the North American Plate. These plates are constantly moving, sliding past each other at different speeds.

The state is also home to more than 500 active faults, according to geologists, making it one of the most earthquake-prone areas in the United States. The most famous is the San Andreas Fault, a system about 800 miles long that runs through much of the state and forms the primary boundary between the two plates.

Other major fault systems include the Hayward Fault in the Bay Area, the Calaveras Fault in central California, and the San Jacinto and Elsinore Fault in Southern California.

But earthquakes are not limited to Earth. Many of them occur offshore, including near the Mendocino Triple Junction, where the Pacific, North American, and Gorda plates meet. This intersection creates one of the most seismically active marine areas along the West Coast.

Can earthquakes be predicted?

Earthquakes cannot be predicted. Neither the USGS nor scientists have predicted a major earthquake, and there is no expectation that this will change in the near future.

What is California’s earthquake early warning system?

California’s earthquake early warning system uses seismic sensors, ground motion monitoring, and alert technology to deliver warnings to people via cell phones before the strongest tremor arrives, according to the official website.

Officials say even a short warning can allow people to take preventative actions such as “drop, cover and wait” or putting devices and systems in safe mode. In some cases, alerts may arrive as soon as shaking begins or after the earthquake has already passed, especially for those closest to the epicenter.

The system is delivered through multiple channels, including Android Earthquake alerts, wireless emergency alerts, and the MyShake app.

Developed by the UC Berkeley Seismic Laboratory, MyShake is a free smartphone app that issues audio and visual warnings for earthquakes that typically have a magnitude of 4.5 or greater, or when weak shaking is expected. It is available on iPhone and Android, as well as select computer platforms.

What to do during an earthquake

An evergreen classic box that pairs well with any earthquake story.

Get down on your hands and knees. Cover your head and neck under sturdy furniture if possible. Wait until the shaking stops. Stay indoors unless you are near a known coastal tsunami hazard area. Stay alert. Get weather alerts via text message

Brandy d covers. Addison reports weather conditions across the United States as a Weather Connect correspondent for the USA TODAY Network. She can be reached at [email protected].

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