The California earthquakes moved the state half a football field

Scientists say the state is drifting at about 45 millimeters per year as pressure builds along major faults. New research shows that parts of Southern California may be ripe for a multi-fault earthquake.

Oregon Airlift Response Team exercises for earthquake response

The Oregon Disaster Airlift Response Team prepares for the unthinkable during an exercise June 14, 2026 in Creswell.

California moves about 45-50 mm per year, as tectonic plates slide past each other along major faults. New research shows that fault systems in Southern California are highly strained after more than a century without significant rupture.

California, Nevada’s neighbor to the west, is not where it used to be — literally.

Over the past thousand years, the state has slowly relocated about half a football field. This is because earthquakes move the state at an average movement rate of about 45 to 50 mm per year. If it continues at this rate, “Los Angeles and San Francisco will one day be adjacent” one day, according to the US Geological Survey.

Some parts of California’s crust gradually creep along faults. Others remain trapped for long periods, building pressure until they are released in earthquakes that can quickly reshape the landscape. This combination of constant movement and episodic rupture keeps California in a state of constant geological flux, even though most of the change is measured in inches per year.

Work looking at fault systems in California, including the San Andreas Fault, shows how variable this stress can be, with stress building up across connected faults over long periods before being released in larger, multi-part earthquakes.

More: Here’s why experts are warning California about ‘The Big One’

Why is the San Andreas Fault so dangerous?

A new study from the University of Hawaii at Manoa finds that major fault zones across Southern California are among the most stressed in at least 1,000 years, raising the possibility of a larger, multi-fault rupture rather than a more isolated earthquake.

Scientists stress the area shows no signs of an imminent earthquake, but they say the San Andreas and San Jacinto faults — stretching across the Inland Empire and near Los Angeles, San Bernardino and Riverside counties — are “critically loaded” more than 160 years since the last major rupture.

The research, published in the journal Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, highlights how stress buildup across interconnected fault segments, including a major intersection at the Cajon Pass, can help determine whether future ruptures will stall or spread across multiple faults.

This long-term buildup fits what seismologists say is typical fault behavior. Earthquakes along the San Andreas system have historically occurred in cycles spanning roughly several centuries, but major parts of the Southern Fault have lasted much longer without a full-fledged “major rupture,” Jonathan Stewart, a professor of earthquake engineering at UCLA, told USA TODAY.

He noted that it has been more than 300 years since the last major rupture in the southern part, which far exceeds what was seen in past patterns. This does not mean an earthquake is imminent, but it indicates an increasing build-up of pressure, Stewart said.

When a large rupture occurs, researchers say the effects can be widespread. One of the biggest concerns is California’s water infrastructure, which relies on long-distance aqueducts that cross fault zones.

“An earthquake like this would rupture most, if not all, of the major aqueducts that carry water to Southern California,” Stewart told USA TODAY. “Most people won’t be in collapsed buildings after this earthquake, but everyone will be affected by water problems.”

San Andreas Fault Map Could the San Andreas Fault ever break completely?

The San Andreas Fault is not a fault that could “split” and drop part of California away from the continent. It’s a sliding plate boundary, meaning the Pacific plate and North American plate are sliding past each other horizontally, not pulling apart, according to the USGS.

Therefore, even in a very large earthquake, what occurs is lateral movement along the fault, not disintegration of the land mass. Parts of California can suddenly move by feet or even dozens of feet during a major rupture, but both sides remain part of the same crustal system.

There are other tectonic places on Earth where continents break up and eventually form new oceans — such as the East African Rift, which is in the process of splitting into two tectonic plates — but the San Andreas system isn’t one of them. It is a sliding boundary, where plates slide past each other instead of apart.

However, over millions of years, continued movement along the fault could gradually bring Los Angeles and San Francisco closer together, geological models suggest.

Could California fall into the ocean?

California will not fall into the ocean. They lie on solid blocks of Earth’s crust that form part of two moving tectonic plates: the Pacific Plate and the North American Plate. These plates meet along the San Andreas Fault, sliding horizontally past each other at a rate of about 45 millimeters per year, the same rate as your fingernails grow.

This type of boundary is called a transform fault, which means that the underlying movement is lateral rather than vertical. Because the movement is lateral, there is no geological mechanism for California to fall or “fall” into the ocean, according to the USGS. Instead, over millions of years, parts of the California coast gradually shift to the northwest compared to North America, slowly reshaping the region but not separating it from the continent.

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Brandy d covers. Addison reports weather conditions across the United States as a Weather Connect correspondent for the USA TODAY Network. She can be reached at [email protected].

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