Los Angeles on earthquake alert as fault lines reach highest stress levels in history: study

Los Angeles may be approaching a “big one,” as new research finds that earthquake stress has reached its highest levels in at least 1,000 years along two of California’s most dangerous fault systems.

The study, published June 3, used computer simulations to examine how stress has built up along three segments of the San Andreas and San Jacinto faults near the San Bernardino Mountains over the past millennium.

The researchers found that two of the three fault segments had reached or exceeded the highest stress levels seen during that period.

An aerial view of the downtown Los Angeles skyline at dusk with the snow-capped San Gabriel Mountains as a backdrop. Getty Images Downtown Los Angeles skyline. Getty Images

The results don’t mean a major quake is imminent, but they reinforce what seismologists have warned for years: Southern California is still primed for a powerful quake.

“We’ve been fortunate in California not to have had a major urban earthquake since 1994 on Northridge,” Ahmed Al-Banna, director of the California Earthquake Center and professor of geosciences and engineering at the University of Southern California, told The Sacramento Bee.

Al-Banna said: “In order to get rid of the pressures and stress levels that we are talking about in this study, we need an earthquake with a magnitude of 7 or greater.”

In an aerial view, the Mormon Rocks are visible, uplifted by pressure from the San Andreas Fault Zone. Getty Images

An earthquake of this size would be more than 125 times stronger than last week’s 5.6 magnitude quake in Mendocino County, which triggered nearly 657,000 early warning alerts through the MyShake app.

The quake knocked out power to about 8,000 Pacific Gas & Electric customers, injured several people and caused thousands of dollars in damage after merchandise fell from store shelves.

According to the study, an earthquake of magnitude 7 or greater could threaten nearly 24 million people across Southern California, including greater Los Angeles and the Inland Empire.

Even before the latest research, scientists agreed that the region would eventually be hit by another major earthquake.

Mormon rocks, which rose due to pressure from the San Andreas fault zone. Getty Images

“The authors themselves, and the community, do not find the study results surprising,” Al-Banna said, adding that Southern California’s crust is “very tense and ready to rupture in a large-scale event. Whether that event will happen tomorrow, or in 10 years, that’s the part we don’t know.”

Researchers reconstructed 1,000 years of earthquake history using radiocarbon-dated sediments, tree-ring records, and historical accounts.

They also examined the Cajon Corridor in San Bernardino County, where the San Andreas and San Jacinto fault intersect.

The passage is more than just a geological hotspot, said lead author Lilian Burkhard, a professor of space research and planetary science at the University of Bern in Switzerland.

A freight train passes through Mormon rocks along Cajon Pass near the San Andreas Fault. Getty Images

“It’s a checkpoint for major highways, railway lines and energy infrastructure, so a disruption there would have consequences far beyond the immediate shaking,” she told The Bee. “This could impact the transport and energy corridors on which the wider region depends.”

Scientists describe the area as an “earthquake gateway” because it can determine whether rupture continues along the fault system or stops.

Al-Banna said that the earthquake spreading through the Cajon Corridor will expose more people to shaking and increase the risk of cascading unrest.

Despite the warning, experts stressed that California’s strict building codes are designed to withstand major earthquakes.

“You might see cracks or things falling, but the structures themselves shouldn’t collapse,” Angie Lux, a seismologist at Berkeley Seismology Laboratory, told The Bee.

Scientists are still unable to accurately predict when the next big earthquake will strike, but Al-Banna said continued investment in earthquake preparedness and warning technology is still crucial.

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