A rare Fairbanks-area earthquake offers clues about how earthquakes start

FAIRBANKS, Alaska (KTUU/KTVF) – Measurements taken from an earthquake that struck inland Alaska on August 20 last year may provide insight into how the seismic event developed and lead to better warning systems, according to researchers at the University of Alaska Fairbanks (UAF).

This 4.2 magnitude quake, centered near Minto Flats west of Fairbanks, showed seismic activity before the observed earthquake began, with increasing behavior leading up to the event, said Carl Tibb, a professor of geophysics at the university.

“The earthquake happened around lunchtime, and everyone is here in this building [the UAF Geophysical Institute] I felt the earthquake. We were kind of excited about it, and when we saw the waves coming on these screens, we knew right away, we could see that before the sudden P wave, that first wave that arrived, right before that, you could see this other path that goes on for tens of seconds,” he described the tape.

According to the professor, of the approximately 50,000 earthquakes seen in Alaska each year, perhaps one per year shows this kind of pattern, while most earthquakes have an abrupt onset and “start with an explosion.”

He explained: “This is of great interest to seismologists, because we do not really understand when, how and where earthquakes start, and this is what interests them scientifically, but also for society in trying to understand how earthquakes start.”

Seismologists ultimately hope to predict when and where an earthquake will occur, as well as its size, Tipp said.

“It will be a tremendous help to the community and will even advance seismology,” he said. “That’s a long way off now, so seismologists study things like this that have some relevance to these questions.”

Describing last year’s unusual event as a gift to researchers, Tip said studying this type of data could lead to insight into how earthquakes start, an area where seismology has so far failed because instruments cannot be placed miles underground, where these events begin.

“At some point, we just want to understand how earthquakes start and how they grow. Ultimately, if we know that and can describe it, we can turn that into a more important warning for others, whether it’s an immediate warning or a forecast, like next week or next month, we expect an event to happen here.”

The Alaska Earthquake Center on the UAF campus is currently working to provide the ability to provide early warnings to residents that an earthquake is coming

The tape specified that this effort did not involve predicting earthquakes, but simply giving people notice that an earthquake was occurring, and that they had perhaps tens of seconds to prepare for the seismic wave from the event to reach their area.

Research into last year’s earthquake, according to Tip, involves interpreting different wave frequencies that were measured during the event to try to paint a picture of how the ground moved as it approached.

He said the next challenge will be determining the difference between a small seismic event and one that leads to a larger event.

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