Report: 48,000 buildings will collapse if a major earthquake strikes Istanbul

A report released by Istanbul Statistics Office on Friday gives a chilling view of what will happen to the city in the event of an earthquake measuring 7.5 on the Richter scale. The report of the office, which is managed by the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IBB), says that 48,000 buildings will either collapse or be severely damaged in such an earthquake and that 194,000 buildings will suffer “moderate” or slightly higher damage.

The report, which comes on the heels of the October 30 earthquake in the western province of Izmir, highlights the city’s exposure to an expected “major earthquake”. According to many experts, it is only a matter of time when an earthquake of great magnitude strikes Istanbul, which has a population of over 15 million. A series of earthquakes hit western and eastern Turkey recently, and Istanbul itself was hit by a 5.8-magnitude earthquake in September 2019.

Istanbul Statistics Office says in its report that the flow of emergency and relief to the city could be disrupted in the event of a large-scale earthquake, causing at least 30% of roads to be closed. The report forecasts at least 120 billion Turkish liras ($ 14 billion) in economic losses for the city, which is Turkey’s main financial center. The report says that an earthquake at night will cause more deaths.

Ertugrul Aglar, the expert in the office, told the Demiroren News Agency (DHA) on Friday that current data shows 376,000 new buildings constructed in the city between 2000 and 2019, but that buildings constructed before 2000 were at greater risk. “They already suffered from the 1999 earthquake,” Aglar says, referring to the large earthquake centered on Gulcuk, a town in Kocaeli province, 126 kilometers (78.3 miles) east of Istanbul. Thousands of people were killed in the area in that earthquake. Ağlar says that 538,800 buildings were constructed in Istanbul between 1980 and 2000, and that they were “still standing”. Istanbul is home to another 255,000 buildings that were constructed before 1980. “They are at additional risk from a possible earthquake,” he said.

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