A new model has been found to predict the speed of earthquake spread

Left: An earthquake ruptured by an oblique slip. The surface that cuts the crust is a mistake. The oblique displacement of the small block indicates the direction of sliding. The colors on the error level show the wrong amount of slip in five consecutive times, generated by computer simulation. The slip is limited in depth and sweeps along the fault at a speed called the rupture velocity. Right: Rupture velocities that large tilt-slip earthquakes can achieve. This graph shows how constant rupture velocities for large earthquakes in the new model by Weng and Ampuero (2020) are dependent on the angle of inclination of the slip and the strength of the fault. Credit: H. Weng and JP Ampuero, Nature Geoscience (2020).

In an article published November 9 in Nature Geoscience, Jean-Paul Ambero and Huihue Wing, researchers from the University of Côte d’Azur and the French National Research Institute for Sustainable Development (IRD-France) proposed a new model for predicting the velocity of spread. Earthquakes.

Among the most damaging natural hazards, earthquakes today remain one of the least understood phenomena in Earth science. Earthquakes occur when rocks slide down either side of a tectonic fault. However, the slide does not occur along the entire fault line simultaneously, but starts at one point, the center of the descending, and then propagates over the entire fault at a speed known as the “rupture velocity” of an earthquake. Geophysicists are particularly interested in rupture speeds because the faster they are, the stronger the seismic waves and thus the greater the damage produced.

The seismic models developed to date infer that earthquakes cannot propagate in a stable and sustained manner at random velocities. So scientists have identified a “forbidden velocity” range that lies between the velocities of the P and S waves, the two main seismic waves that propagate through the Earth. However, advances in seismic monitoring made it possible to demonstrate that recent earthquakes had indeed spread within the restricted range. This was the case with the 2018 earthquake in Palu, Indonesia, for example, which caused a devastating tsunami.

Uninterrupted tearing speeds due to oblique slip

To resolve this confusing discrepancy between earthquake theory and observations, Côte d’Azur and IRD researchers developed a new model for predicting the speed of earthquake propagation. This feat was accomplished using the high-performance computer of the Côte d’Azur Observatory, a participant in OPAL, a common platform providing access to all computational resources in the region.

The researchers were able to overcome two critical limitations of previous models. The first was to rely on two-dimensional models, while the Earth was three-dimensional. The second is to assume either a horizontal or vertical direction of slip, while earthquake slip can be tilted. By overcoming these two limitations, they were able to explain why “forbidden speeds” were actually accepted.

“One of the main challenges in preventing earthquakes is predicting their impact. We need to seize this opportunity to introduce more physics into seismic risk assessment, which has been very so far,” notes Huihui Weng, a researcher at the University of Cote d’Azur. “The new paradigm provides validated theoretical elements that can ultimately be used to improve the way earthquake risk is assessed,” adds Jean-Paul Ambero, a seismologist at the IRD.

7.5 Richter scale earthquake in Indonesia – extraordinary, constant velocity Further information: Continuity of earthquake rupture velocities by tilted slip, Nature Geoscience (2020). DOI: 10.1038 / s41561-020-00654-4, www.nature.com/articles/s41561-020-00654-4

Provided by the Research Institute for Development

Citation: New model found for predicting seismic spread velocity (2020, Nov.9) Retrieved November 9, 2020 from https://phys.org/news/2020-11-earthquake-propagation.html

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