Renewal may reduce the risk of earthquake damage in Istanbul in 5 years

It is not a “if” but a “when” as Istanbul prepares for a “major” earthquake, an earthquake that is expected to hit many coastal areas of the city. Environment and Urban Planning Minister Murad Corum told a parliamentary committee that it would take five years of serious work to restore old buildings and demolish unsafe buildings. If this is achieved, he said, Istanbul may be able to avoid the risk of significant damage from a disaster.

With over 15 million people concentrated in a relatively small area, the risk of earthquake in the city is higher than others in the Marmara region. Indeed, much of Turkey is at risk as it is interspersed with a number of active fault lines. But experts say no other city faces a serious threat like Istanbul, with a very active fault line running near the capital capable of causing a massive earthquake. As a result, forecasts are for an earthquake of 7.0 magnitude or higher in the city in the near future.

He was referring to the 1509 earthquake in Istanbul that claimed thousands of lives. Corum noted that the threat was described as an “emergency” for the city, Corum said. Tsunami threatens 17 provinces in the event of a major earthquake.

According to figures released by the ministry, Istanbul hosts around 1.5 million housing units that are at potential risk. Corum said 300,000 of them needed an urgent “transformation”. Turkey is pursuing an ambitious nationwide “urban transformation” project that includes demolishing old, often unsafe buildings and replacing them with new buildings able to withstand severe earthquakes.

The figures also show that since 2000, only 273,000 buildings have been built in Istanbul in line with the new regulations that have improved disaster resistance standards. Corum said 117,000 residences are currently being “converted” into 35,000 buildings in 68 risky areas across Istanbul.

The European side of Istanbul, which is more densely populated and closer to the fault lines, is expected to be affected the most in the earthquake. Minister Corum pointed out that the old settlements in Istanbul in particular, with plans for zoning slums due to the decades-old migration boom, are particularly threatened. “These places lacked inspections and it is a mental result that prioritized having a place to live rather than safety concerns.”

Corum singled out Silivri, Buyukcekmece, Kucukcekmece, Bakirkoy, Zeytinburnu and Fatih on the European side and the Maltepe, Kartal and Tuzla regions, as well as the coastal parts of Kadikoy on the Asian side as the most dangerous sites due to its proximity to the fault. Lines. But he stressed that the ground must be examined for hazards in areas far from fault lines as well, that is, areas in the northern parts of the city. He also said that Turkey, in general, has about 6.7 million risky buildings that may not withstand a major earthquake.

According to a report by the Urban Transformation and Urban Development Corporation (KENTSEV), Istanbul has 263,000 buildings constructed before 1980 that could collapse or be damaged. Fatih, one of the oldest neighborhoods in the city, has 32,000 such buildings while in the neighboring Beyoglu district there are 17,000 old ones. A report released earlier this year indicates that around 3.1 million people are residing in these buildings.

Last year, the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IBB) announced that 48,000 buildings would collapse or be severely damaged in an earthquake measuring 7.5 on the Richter scale and that 194,000 buildings would suffer “moderate” or slightly higher damage. The last time Istanbul was hit by a 5.8-magnitude earthquake was in September 2019, and it caused relatively little damage to buildings, but was large enough to push people onto the streets. The IBB’s Istanbul Statistics Office says in its report that the flow of emergency and relief into the city may be impeded in the event of a large-scale earthquake, causing at least 30% of roads to be closed. The report forecasts at least 120 billion Turkish liras ($ 14 billion) in economic losses for the city, which is Turkey’s main financial center. The report says that if the earthquake happened at night, it would lead to more deaths.

In an effort to prevent further damage from human error, the Ministry of Environment and Urban Planning is planning to implement a Building Identity System to regularly inspect buildings for illegal alterations that may exacerbate damage from the earthquake. The system aims to prevent practices such as converting building basements into residential floors, the illegal addition of additional flooring and cutting of support columns, a controversial practice used to expand space in buildings. The system will assign an “identifier” to each building with a QR code and an RFID chip to check the building integrity. Residents will be able to check if the building is safe and what materials were used to build it.

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