Major Los Angeles earthquake hazard may be due to Strand’s omission of the San Andreas South Fault

To address uncertainties about where large earthquakes are most likely to occur along the Southern San Andreas Fault, which splits into multiple strings east of Los Angeles, a new study has identified a thread that has been largely carried under the radar of public concern as the greatest earthquake threat in the region.

The study specifies that Mission Creek, which runs through the major water and power infrastructure of the greater Los Angeles area, may roughly represent the full slip rate of this portion of the fault, indicating that it may in fact be the core portion of the Pacific and North America. Panel border error at this latitude.

The San Andreas Fault threatens major earthquakes in the future, as its southern portion has not ruptured for nearly 300 years and significant stress has accumulated. However, determining which of the multiple fault strands in the region bore the greatest burden from this strain has proven challenging due to the limited accuracy of slip rate models.

Map of the study area in the south of the Sudanese armed forces Credit: Blisniuk et al. , Science Advances.

While current estimates of a rupture in the coming decades are higher for Banning and Garnet Hill and the San Gorgonio Pass fracture area than for the Mission Creek Rope, the relative risks of earthquakes along the various strands remain uncertain. To overcome the limitations of current models, Kimberly Blisniuk and colleagues investigated long-term deformation rates of Mission Creek and Banning threads, and calculated fault slip rates using cumulative records of fault movement preserved over time in close terrain.

Based on field mapping performed using lidar data, the researchers selected Pushawalla Canyon as the best location for making slip rate measurements. Plisniuk et al. Have found evidence of geologically recent slides from faults at these latitudes, including currents carved from late Pleistocene rocks and gullies in steep canyons likely dating back to the Holocene.

Researchers determined that the Mission Creek strand accounts for about 21.5 mm per year of the total slip rate of the San Andreas fault of 24.1 mm per year, while the Banning strand accounts for only about 2.5 mm per year of slip rate. The results suggest that Mission Creek, which received less seismic risk attention than the Banning Thread, Garnet Hill and San Giorgio Corridor, may be a greater risk than previously thought.

The reference: “A Revised Status of Baseline Fracture of the Pleistocene and Holocene San Andreas in Southern California” by Kimberly Plisniuk, Kathryn Sharer, and Warren D. Sharp, Roland Burgmann, Colin Amos, and Michael Reimer, March 24, 2021, Advance Science. DOI: 10.1126 / sciadv.aaz5691

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