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The statistical model shows: earthquakes in Groningen are partly aftershocks

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“The model is applied to the KNMI catalog of earthquakes from 1995 to 2018, and it shows that the aftershocks role in the Groningen field cannot be neglected,” Van den Hovel says.

Aftershocks impede vision

Compared to geological earthquakes, induced earthquakes are often characterized by a highly variable process in time, location and the resulting seismic activity. This strong contrast and the limited amount of data complicates the important distinction between primary earthquakes directly related to the process and the aftershocks occurring between them, and thus impedes seeing the direct impact of human activity.

The new model is able to describe strong disparity in time and space with a limited number of parameters. In a paper recently published in Scientific Reports, the interdisciplinary collaboration explains their mathematical model and its application to the Groningen earthquakes.

Reference

Post, RAJ, Michels, MAJ, Ampuero, JP. Et al. Intermittent time distribution and aftershock frequency in unstable induced earthquakes. Sci Rep 11, 3540 (2021).

ttps: //doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-82803-2

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