The study found a link between rain and earthquakes

Correlation: A team of researchers said that more precipitation during summer in Taiwan increases the hydrological load on fault lines, making them less prone to slipping.

By Yang Yuan Ting / Staff Correspondent, with the Cyprus News Agency

A team of researchers at Academia Sinica found a relationship between the amount of precipitation and the frequency of earthquakes in Taiwan.

“The relationship between seismic and hydrological loading cycles could provide valuable insights to improve regional risk assessment,” the team wrote in their study, of which the lead author was Hsu Ya-ju (許雅儒) Academia Seneca Institute of Geosciences Research Fellow.

6.4-magnitude earthquake in Jiaoxian District of Kaohsiung (甲仙) on March 4, 2010, 6.4-magnitude earthquake in Wutai Town in Pingtung County (霧 台) on February 26, 2012, and earthquake of 6.6 magnitude in Minong District of Kaohsiung () Hsu said On February 6, 2016, it all happened in the same season.

Photo: Billy HC Cook, Bloomberg

She said medium-level earthquakes in Taiwan occur more frequently in February and March, and less frequently in summer.

Hsu said the frequency of earthquakes with a magnitude of 2.5 to 6 degrees is higher in winter and early spring, and lower in the period from July to September.

After determining the seasonality of the earthquakes, Hsu added, she analyzed changes in water conservation and groundwater levels.

She said that changes in hydrological loading are a major factor in seasonal changes in seismic activity.

It said that Taiwan’s rainfall is usually more in summer due to typhoons and convection, which increases the hydrological load on the fault line, making it less prone to slipping.

She added that when the load drops in winter, the malfunction is more likely to slip, adding to earthquakes.

“Taiwan is at converging plate boundaries with earthquakes caused by abundant thrust fault that can be used to test the effect of loading and unloading on earthquake modification,” the study said.

While earthquakes in eastern Taiwan show the same seasonal pattern, the team’s results are less relevant to shallow earthquakes, at depths of up to 18 kilometers, Hsu said.

She added that the nation is facing a prolonged drought this year, and the Central Meteorological Office said earthquakes so far this year are higher than previous years, consistent with the team’s findings.

The study, titled “Synchronous and Asynchronous Modification of Seismic Activity by Hydrological Loading: A Case Study in Taiwan,” was published in Science Advances on Wednesday last week and includes contributions from Canadian, Japanese and US researchers.

In related news, the bureau said yesterday that rainfall is possible nationwide starting today due to the approaching cloud band and weather front, but it is unlikely to alleviate the water shortage.

The bureau said the cloud range is expected to move from eastern China today and bring rain, with the possibility of short rains in northern and eastern Taiwan, while rain is also likely in mountainous areas in the west, especially in the afternoon.

It added that the weather front is expected to approach Taiwan on Wednesday, with the possibility of short rains in northern and eastern Taiwan.

It added that the weather system is expected to strengthen and move quickly on Thursday, leading to more rain and thunderstorms in the north-central areas of Taiwan.

She said the rains will not continue and will not be sufficient to ease the water shortage that has caused water rationing in parts of the country.

Heavy rains that can help ease drought conditions are unlikely until the next plum rains season, which is expected to begin next month.

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