Scientists map local earthquake risk from Nigerian Ford fracturing operations

Stanford scientists simulated the local risk of damage or vibration to the disturbance level of hydraulic fracturing via the Eagle Ford oil shale formation in Texas. The results could shape a new approach to managing human-induced earthquakes.

Written by Josie Garthwaite

Hydraulic fracturing to extract trapped fossil fuels can trigger earthquakes. Most are so small or remote from homes and infrastructure that they may go unnoticed; Others can shake windows, influence light bulbs, and shake people from sleep; Some have destroyed buildings.

Stanford University geophysicists simulated and mapped the risks of observed vibration and potential building damage from earthquakes from hydraulic fracturing at all potential fracturing sites via the Eagle Ford Oil Shale Formation in Texas, which has hosted some of the largest fracturing-induced earthquakes in the United States. States.

Published April 29 in the journal Science, the results showed that the most densely populated areas – particularly the narrow part of the Eagle Ford located between San Antonio and Houston – face the greatest risk of being vibrationally strong enough to damage buildings or be felt by people. “We found that the risks of nuisance or harm vary greatly across space, depending mostly on population density,” said lead author Ryan Schultz, a PhD student in geophysics at Stanford.

Social license

Tens of thousands of wells drilled into the broad formation over the past decade helped fuel the shale boom in the United States and contributed to a significant increase in earthquakes in the central and eastern United States beginning in 2009. Although devastating earthquakes are rare, the authors write, The perceived risks of hydraulic fracturing worried the public and hindered the development of the industry.

In sparsely populated areas within the southwestern portion of the Eagle Ford, researchers have found that damage is unlikely even if fracturing causes earthquakes of up to 5.0 degrees. And they write that allowing such powerful earthquakes could jeopardize the “social license to work”. The phrase, which appeared in the mining industry in the 1990s and has since been adopted by climate activists, refers to the informal acceptance by members of the community and the broader civil society that oil, gas and mining operations need to do business without costly conflicts.

“Earthquakes are part of the social license for fracking, but they’re not the only problem,” said study co-author Bill Ellsworth, professor of geophysics research at Stanford University’s School of Earth, Energy and Environmental Sciences (Stanford Earth). “Eliminating earthquakes completely hydraulic fracturing will not change any of the other concerns.”

Among these concerns are health threats from living near oil and gas wells and greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel production and use. California’s recent announcement of plans to stop issuing new hydraulic fracturing permits by 2024, for example, comes as part of an effort to phase out oil extraction and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Initiate the risk

The researchers say their goal is to make it easier for operators, regulators, locals and landlords to discuss risks that matter to them without technical expertise. “The approach we developed provides nuisance or damage risks as a common frame of reference and tools for its evaluation,” said study co-author and professor of geophysics Greg Beroza, co-director of the Stanford Center for induced and stimulated earthquakes. (Sets).

The new risk analysis applies a technique first published last year to look at the whereabouts of people and structures as well as predictions of the maximum magnitude of earthquakes and geological factors that can amplify or dampen tremors as they travel underground. This approach makes it possible to start with a specific level of risk – such as a 50 percent chance of 30 households experiencing vibration that seems exciting but not scary, based on community surveys – and calculating the largest earthquake magnitude would keep the risk at or below. This level.

The authors suggest using this type of analysis as a starting point for managing earthquake risks from fracturing using a system known as a traffic light protocol. Traffic light protocols have been adopted in states including Ohio and Oklahoma to manage seismic risks related to oil and gas and some geothermal development, giving operators the green light to proceed as long as earthquakes remain relatively small. Larger earthquakes may require the operator to adjust or stop fluid injection, knowing that the shaking may persist and even intensify after the pumps are shut down.

“If the goal is to treat everyone equally in terms of risk, our analysis shows that fewer measures should be taken for drilling sites near cities in North Eagle Ford than in rural areas in the South,” Ellsworth said. He is also the Co-Director of SCITS.

According to the researchers, it is “unfair” to standardize the amount of vibration permitted across a formation as large as the Eagle Ford. “Single-value boundaries can allow for very permissive thresholds in urban areas or very restrictive in rural areas,” said Beruza, Professor Wayne Lowell at Stanford Earth University. Alternatively, if you start tolerating risk, you can set thresholds that vary according to changes in risk.

Piroza is also the Associate Director of the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC).

This research was supported by SCITS.

/ General release. This material comes from the original organization and may be chronological in nature, and is edited for clarity, style, and length. Full demo here. .

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