Here’s what would happen if a massive earthquake hits Los Angeles

To get a warning about an earthquake that may affect you, download the MyShake app. (Glucit/The Times/Getty)

If a major earthquake destroys the San Andreas Fault, the death toll could approach 2,000, seismologist Lucy Jones said, the shaking could cause damage in every city in Southern California — from Palm Springs to San Luis Obispo. Here’s what could happen.

early warnings

California and the western United States have a network of early warning sensors. The Earthquake Early Warning System works on a simple principle: seismic waves from an earthquake travel at the speed of sound through rock — slower than current communications systems.

For example, a 7.8-magnitude earthquake that began in the Salton Sea would take more than a minute to shake Los Angeles, 150 miles away, and travel along the state’s longest fault, the San Andreas.

Depending on your location, this could give you precious seconds to sit under a sturdy piece of furniture and tuck it in before you feel the vibration. Remember: the moment you feel an earthquake, fall to the ground, cover your head and neck with your arms, or get down under a sturdy piece of furniture nearby, and hold on to it.

To get the warning, download MyShake to your smartphone.

shaking

The shaking would be more intense than the 1994 Northridge earthquake or the Mexico City earthquake in September 2017. The USGS calculated these as “violent” shaking, or intensity 9 on a 10-point scale. The Times reported that a major earthquake in San Andreas would bring “extreme” tremors: 10 out of 10. It could last for nearly two minutes, according to the US Geological Survey.

No one alive today has witnessed such an earthquake in this region.

death and damage

About 1,800 people could die in a hypothetical 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault — that’s according to a scenario published by the USGS called ShakeOut. More than 900 people can die in fires, more than 600 in building damage or collapse, and more than 150 in transportation accidents. Approximately 50,000 people can be infected.

The story continues

If the earthquake occurred during a Santa Ana wind event, the spread of fires could be catastrophic. If it’s particularly rainy, landslides are a major concern.

Interstates 10 and 15 both cross the San Andreas Fault and can become impassable, cutting Southern California from the population centers of Las Vegas and Phoenix.

Jones told The Times that canals that bring 88% of Los Angeles’ water and cross the San Andreas Fault could be damaged or destroyed.

ShakeOut co-author Keith Porter, research professor at the University of Colorado, Boulder, warned in a 2011 study in the journal Earthquake Spectra that under certain conditions, a 7.8-magnitude earthquake can cause a sudden interruption in the high-voltage transmission of electricity between states that “It is possible that the whole of the Western United States will lose its power.” In other states, the scenario said, electricity could be restored within hours. But restoring power in Southern California could take several days.

The number of people displaced from their homes could reach one million.

The ShakeOut scenario estimates damages of up to $200 billion.

Communication networks, including internet and mobile phone service, may be disrupted for days or more if communication lines are cut and power is cut off. The volume of calls will be high right after a major earthquake, which will lead to outages as well. It may be easier to send and receive text messages.

Aftershocks and beyond

Do you remember the Ridgecrest earthquake on July 4, 2019? It was a foreboding tremor – a larger earthquake followed the next day. If the major shock on the San Andreas Fault is the main one, large aftershocks (or preceded by earthquakes) could follow at any time, killing and injuring more people and causing more damage.

The ShakeOut scenario assumes that a day or so after the shaking occurs, it is possible that water, sewer, electricity and gas service will still be available to people in the areas affected by the worst shaking. In heavily damaged areas, many people camp outdoors.

Rescue operations for people from damaged buildings can last for three days or more. It may take this long or longer to put out fires. Hospitals may be overcrowded and short of supplies, in addition to dealing with their own damage.

A month after the earthquake, some damaged roads and bridges could still be out of order. Interstate highways will likely have reopened, and most people’s facilities will be back to work, although the tap water may need to be boiled. It may take up to six months for many people to begin to return to normal.

This article was compiled from published Times reports and the USGS ShakeOut earthquake scenario.

This story originally appeared in the Los Angeles Times.

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