European companies get help preparing for the next earthquake

As Europeans grow increasingly concerned about potential earthquakes, scientists must improve earthquake early warning systems and communicate risks — especially for business.

By Pablo Salucci, science writer (@psalucci)

Citation: Salucci, b. , 2021, European companies get help preparing for the next earthquake, Temblor, http://doi.org/10.32858/temblor.182

Earthquakes cause the highest number of deaths of all other natural hazards in Europe. Only severe storms cause more economic losses. Between 2006 and 2015, 21 earthquake-related disasters in Europe alone resulted in 1,049 deaths, caused financial losses of more than US$21 billion, and affected 284,000 Europeans, according to TURNkey, a research consortium aimed at curbing the future of humankind and the economy. . Earthquake losses in Europe.

Damage to buildings due to the Aegean earthquake that hit Turkey on October 30, 2020. Credit: Voice of America, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

“As a result of public awareness campaigns, business organizations in Europe are becoming increasingly aware of earthquake risks,” says Vimke Mulder, a TURNkey researcher who specializes in disaster and humanitarian studies at Anglia Ruskin University in the UK. She and her colleagues focus on how earthquake early warning combined with operational earthquake forecasting can help companies prepare for future earthquakes.

Forecasting vibration and losses

Earthquake early warning systems have developed rapidly thanks to technology and advances in understanding the physical complexity of earthquakes. These systems include seismographs that communicate in near real time with computers equipped to quickly process the data. Sophisticated algorithms on these computers computes information about the earthquake – such as location and magnitude – within seconds, helping to predict the intensity of ground shaking in the area around the fault. Then, vibration intensity forecasts must be released to the public or other end users in large urban areas before they experience any severe vibration that could cause damage. Earthquake Early Warning ideally provides automatic alerts tens of seconds before harmful seismic waves arrive, which can help businesses reduce injuries and damage to critical systems.

Operational earthquake forecasting is different from earthquake early warning. In a video presented with a summary at the annual meeting of the European Geophysical Union in April, Mulder noted that operational earthquake forecasting “provides information on hazards and risks before a major earthquake occurs.” Companies that participate in operational earthquake forecasting periodically update their information about earthquake risks, allowing them to better plan for employee safety and potential business interruptions. These companies can also plan jointly with business partners who share similar forecasts.

“Our goal is to assess how earthquake forecasting and operational early warning can more effectively contribute to business continuity planning and disaster management,” Mulder said. Together, these systems can improve earthquake preparedness for both businesses and critical infrastructure providers by ensuring minimal downtime.

An illustration of the chronology of Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF), Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) and Rapid Earthquake Response (RRE). Credit: TURNkey

Rapid response to earthquakes

“Rapid Earthquake Response,” a notation TURNkey uses to refer to the combination of near-real-time estimates of both ground motion and potential losses, is another step to help set up resilience as it helps companies quickly identify short-term responses. TURNkey’s cloud-based computer system can display the results of algorithms for operational earthquake prediction, earthquake early warning, and rapid earthquake response, according to the TURNkey website. The goal is to ensure that stakeholders know the initial actions they need to take.

“Platforms like this … effectively educate and communicate the possibilities and risks,” says Cindy Maura Stock, a postdoctoral researcher at Western University in Ontario, Canada. She also points out that these systems are not enough by themselves – awareness of the risks and possibilities is essential. “In the case of companies, whoever makes the decision,” says Maura Stock [must know] What do you do with that information.” For example, she says, anyone who works in a factory should know if cutting off the gas supply in the event of an earthquake is necessary.

Technical principles of earthquake early warning system. Credit: Velazquez, 2020

Varying levels of preparation

Rapid earthquake response “means coordination between the various responders to an earthquake event,” Mulder says. However, how different countries manage risk varies, as does risk management within one country, she says.

One reason for the differences in how countries prepare is that each country faces different risks. For example, in the seismically active Campania region of southern Italy, home to large cities such as Naples, earthquake early warning is brought to real-time testing. In countries like Iceland, “the threat of major earthquakes and dangerous events is always present and anticipated,” Mulder says, so monitoring and risk management is advanced compared to European countries that are less seismically active. She says that in countries like the Netherlands, where there is much less natural earthquakes, “the concern arises from a series of low-level earthquakes” caused by induced earthquakes. She adds that companies and governments often increase their level of preparedness after the earthquake reminds them to do so.

Facing upcoming earthquakes requires learning about the seismic hazards present in each region. The challenges of the coming years lie in the integration of systems between countries, and the timely delivery of information.

Codogno, 2016). Credit: Mario Fornasari from Ferrara, Italy, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons Italy, 27 victims. The economic damage was significant, estimated at US$16.25 billion, roughly 0.8% of GDP for that year. The value of the emergency measures amounted to 860 million USD, damage to residential homes was 4.03 billion USD, and damages to businesses 6.35 billion USD, which accounted for about 40% of the total losses (Codogno, 2016). Credit: Mario Fornasari from Ferrara, Italy, CC BY 2.0, via Commons Wikimedia

How TURNkey Helps Business

“What companies have in common is that they do not systematically update earthquake risk and hazard information in the preparedness approach, which limits business continuity in the event of an earthquake,” Mulder says. She and her TURNkey colleagues sit down with the companies and discuss what is needed — and what is possible — from an engineering perspective. If an earthquake occurs above the expected vibration threshold, the TURNkey can, for example, facilitate the suspension of the gas supply, automatically open elevator doors, or force trains to slow.

By helping companies understand their risks, TURNkey helps them regularly evaluate their processes and protocols, says Mora-Stock, allowing them to update their response plans for seismic hazards.

references

Mulder, F., Morga, M., and Jones, K: Insights for Business Centric Erezner and Operating Systems, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 April 2021, EGU21-12856, https://doi.org/ 10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12856, 2021.

Velazquez, O., Pescaroli, G., Cremen, G., & Galasso, C. (2020). A review of the technical, social and organizational components of earthquake early warning systems. Frontiers in Earth Sciences, 8, 445.

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