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Births in China have recorded historically low levels, barely exceeding the death rate

Births in China have recorded historically low levels, barely exceeding the death rate

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China’s birth rate fell for the fifth year in a row in 2021, bringing the world’s most populous country closer to the potentially seismic moment when its population will begin to shrink.

The rapid decline has accelerated an impending demographic crisis, which economists and demographers warn could reshape the country’s economic vitality and even its political stability. The decline in births continued despite governments easing its infamous one-child policy starting in 2016 and, last year, rules limiting families to two children.

The number of births fell to 10.6 million in 2021, compared to 12 million a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics reported on Monday. This was the lowest number since the Communist Party founded the People’s Republic of China in 1949. It is even lower than in 1961, when the Great Leap Forward, Mao Zedong’s economic policy, resulted in widespread famine and death.

China is facing a demographic crisis that is beyond the imagination of Chinese authorities and the international community, said Yi Fuxian, a professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, who has long argued that China Communist Party leaders were reporting less figures. population.

The declining birth rate and rising life expectancy that has accompanied China’s economic transformation over the past four decades means that there will soon be a decline in the number of people of working age compared to the growing number of very elderly people. to work. This can result in labor shortages, which can hamper economic growth and reduce tax revenues.

According to data released Monday, China’s population still grew last year, but only slightly, climbing to 1.412 billion. However, for the first time since the era of the great leap 60 years ago, the number of people who died was 10.1 million approaching the number of births.

At this rate, the population will soon begin to decline, as a result of a child’s policy and the social and economic conditions that have increasingly pushed women to postpone or give up motherhood. In recent years the government has tried to encourage families to have more children, but so far without success.

Basically, in a country with a large population like China, if the difference between the number of births and the number of deaths is only a few hundred thousand, it basically belongs to the zero growth limit, He Yafu, an independent demographer in the southern city Zhanjiang said in a telephone interview.

The trend, he warned, can not be reversed.

Kler Fu contributed to research

Sources

1/ https://Google.com/

2/ https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/17/world/asia/china-births-demographic-crisis.html

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