Europe’s climate warming at twice the global average, report says | Climate crisis

Temperatures in Europe have risen more than twice the global average in the past 30 years, according to a report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

The effects of this warming are already being seen, with droughts, fires and melting ice occurring across the continent. The European State of the Climate Report, produced with the EU’s Copernicus service, warns that as the warming trend continues, extreme heat, fires, floods and other consequences of climate disruption will affect society, the economy and ecosystems.

From 1991 to 2021, temperatures in Europe have warmed at an average rate of about 0.5C per decade. This has had physical results: Alpine glaciers lost 30 meters in ice thickness between 1997 and 2021, while the Greenland ice sheet was also melting, contributing to sea level rise. In the summer of 2021, Greenland had its first recorded rainfall at its highest point, Summit Station.

Human life has been lost as a result of extreme weather events. The report says that in 2021, high-impact weather and climate events, 84% of which were floods and storms leading to hundreds of deaths, directly affected more than 500,000 people and caused economic damage exceeding $50 billion.

Europe presents a direct picture of a warming world and reminds us that even well-prepared societies are not safe from the impacts of extreme weather events, said WMO Secretary-General Prof Petteri Taalas. This year, like 2021, large parts of Europe have been affected by severe heat waves and drought, fueling wildfires. In 2021, extraordinary floods caused death and destruction.

It also found that this trend was likely to continue, with more weather disasters predicted in the future. It predicts that temperatures will rise in all European areas at a rate that exceeds average global temperature changes, similar to past observations. As the climate warms to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, weather events will accelerate, with ever-decreasing summer rainfall likely to cause devastating droughts. Extreme rain and flooding are likely to follow in later months in all regions except the Mediterranean.

Although the report makes for grim reading, there is some good news. It notes that many European countries have been very good at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and EU emissions fell by 31% between 1990 and 2020. Europe has also acted to protect people from the worst effects of climate emergency, with extreme weather warning systems protecting around 75% of people, while heat-health action plans have saved many lives.

On the mitigation side, the good pace in reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the region should continue and ambition should be further increased. Europe can play a key role towards achieving a carbon-neutral society by mid-century to meet Paris [climate] agreement, Taalas said.

There are a number of reasons why Europe has warmed faster than other parts of the world. It has a high percentage of land mass, which warms faster than the sea. The Arctic and generally high northern latitudes are also the fastest warming regions globally, and a relatively large part of Europe is in northern latitudes.

Feedback systems can also contribute, such as dried soil moisture that means temperatures rise faster, drying the soil more. Another example of feedback loops is Europe’s vulnerability to twin jet streams.

This twin effect occurs when a jet stream temporarily splits in two, leaving an area of ​​weak winds and high-pressure air between the two branches that causes extreme heat. These dual flows become more likely as the ground warms in early summer.

or study in Nature Communications published earlier this year found that Europe was a heatwave hotspot, in part because the twin jet streams account for about 35% of temperature variability.

Other scientists welcomed the report, pointing out that Europe’s cities were heat islands and thus felt more extreme temperatures. Professor Daniela Schmidt, at the Cabot Institute and School of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, said: When global warming is reported, the focus is always on the global average, currently 1.1C. But there are big differences, with much of the ocean warming less, the land more, and more the further poleward you go. Our cities on top of that are heat islands, as many of us felt during this hot summer.

In the UK, this summer’s heatwave resulted in nearly 3,000 more deaths among people over 65. The heat and drought together affected transport on European rivers, energy production, our ecosystems and our people. These risks will only increase with any increase in warming and these risks will decrease the longer we wait.